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Chiefs (5-7) @ Jets (7-5) - KC put newly-acquired QB Orton in for start of 2nd quarter at Chicago last week; he dislocated index finger on passing hand the first play, so Palko was back under center- he completed 38-yard Hail Mary on last play of half, just Chiefs’ 2nd TD on last 54 drives, as KC snapped 4-game skid. Chiefs won three of last four away games; they’re 4-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-3-31 points. Jets are 7-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 3-29-18-6-4 points, with loss to Patriots. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread. Home side won four of last five Chief-Jet games, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points. Last seven KC games stayed under total; seven of Jets’ last ten went over.
Colts (0-12) @ Ravens (9-3) - Winless Colts are back in town they deserted 28 years ago; Indy won nine of last 11 series games and eight in row, but Manning was under center for those games, not Orlovsky, who was terrific in garbage time last week, but helped dig Colts 31-3 hole before that. Indy is 1-7 vs spread in last eight games; they’re 2-4 as road dogs, losing away games by 27-7-10-55-17-7 points. Last time Colts started drive on plus side of field was Week 3; over their last seven games, they’re -14 in turnovers. Ravens are 4-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 28-17-15-3-7-10 points. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Teams are 1-9 SU (1-2 as favorites) the week after playing Cleveland; underdogs are 2-2 the week after playing New England. Three of last four Raven games stayed under the total.
Texans (9-3) @ Bengals (7-5) - First NFL road start for rookie QB Yates, but Texans won/covered last six games, allowing only three TD’s on 47 drives in last four games. Houston is 4-2 on road, losing at Saints/Ravens; all four wins were by 10+ points. Bengals lost three of last four games, with all three L’s to Steelers/Ravens; Cincy is 3-2 at home, losing to Steelers/49ers- they’ve got only four takeaways in last five games (-4) after taking ball away 11 times in first eight games (+3). Home side won three of last four series games, with Houston winning last two meetings, 35-6/28-17. Teams are 8-3 SU (3-2 as dogs) week after playing Atlanta; teams are 3-7 SU (0-4 as favorites) week after playing Pittsburgh. Under is 7-2 in last nine Houston games; 2-5-1 in last eight Bengal tilts.
Raiders (7-5) @ Packers (12-0) - Green Bay playing for history now, only four wins away from 16-0 season; they’re 13-5 vs spread during this epic win streak, 4-1 as home favorites this year, winning at Lambeau by 8-26-21-38-9 points. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve won three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 20 at Miami, 3 at Buffalo on foreign soil (4-2 SU). Pack won last five series games, with four of the five wins by 13+ points; Raiders lost last three visits here, by 28-4-31 points, after winning first three visits. AFC West road underdogs are 5-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North home favorites are 8-6. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread week after playing Miami; favorites are 2-2 week after playing the Giants. Four of last five Oakland games, five of last six Packer tilts went over total.
Vikings (2-10) @ Lions (7-5) - Frustration mounting for playoff-starved Detroit squad that’s been beating itself with immature play; Lions lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start, during which time they beat Vikings 26-23 in OT at Metrodome, after trailing 20-0 at half. Detroit scored 24+ points in all seven wins, 19 or less in every loss; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, winning at Ford Field by 45-11-14 points, but they’ve lost three of last four at home, Hapless Vikings lost last four games, giving up 32.8 ppg; they’re 2-2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-5-29-38-10 points, with a win at Carolina. Lions have 22 penalties for 189 yards in last two games; is NFL sending them message for not disciplining their players themselves? Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.
Saints (9-3) @ Titans (7-5) - New Orleans is 6-0 at home, scoring 39.8 ppg, just 3-3 on road, allowing 26.5 ppg with losses to Rams/Bucs, two of worst teams in NFL; Saints are 2-2 on grass, outscoring foes 109-105. Tennessee won three of last four games, running ball for 389 yards last two weeks, as Johnson suddenly found his form- they were averaging 77.3 yards/game on ground up until then. Titans are 4-2 at home, losing to Texans/Bengals; they’re 5-1-1 vs spread as underdogs this year. Titans won last four series games, with three wins by 15+ points; last Saint series win was in 1993. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 9-11-1 vs spread, 3-4 at home; NFC South road favorites are also 3-4. Last six Tennessee games, three of last four Saint games stayed under. Saints won/covered last four games since awful loss in St Louis.
Eagles (4-8) @ Dolphins (4-8) - Two teams with same record going in opposite directions; Miami won four of last five games after 0-7 start, outscoring foes 89-31 in winning last three home games, allowing two garbage-time TD’s in last 33 home possessions- they’re 3-0 as a favorite this year. Eagles lost four of last five games, giving up 10.1/9.1 yards/pass attempt in last two games- they’re expected to get Vick back under center here, but they lost his last two starts, too. Philly has had edge in field position only four times this year, but they lost three of those four games- they played last Thursday- underdogs that lost the previous Thursday are 0-2 vs spread this year. Under is 3-1-1 in Miami’s last five home games. NFC East non-divsional underdogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-5 on road. AFC East home favorites are 7-5-1.
Patriots (9-3) @ Redskins (4-8) - New England won last four games (3-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in all four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Patriots are +8 in turnovers (9-1) in those games- they’re 4-2 on road, with all four wins by 12+ points (losses at Bills/Steelers). Redskins lost seven of last eight games, dropping last four at home by 7-8-3-15 points. Skins led Jets with 5:00 left last week, but gave up three TDs in x:xx and lost 34-19. Washington won six of last eight series games but lost 52-7 at Foxboro in last meeting, vs 18-1 Pats, who lost only two visits here, 22-17 in ’03, 24-22 in ’81. Favorites are 1-4 vs spread week after playing the Colts; underdogs are likewise 1-4 week after playing the Jets. Last two weeks, AFC teams have won eight of ten against NFC opponents. Brady vs Grossman is severe QB mismatch.
Falcons (7-5) @ Panthers (4-8) - Atlanta won four of last five series games, beating Carolina 31-17 (-4) at home in Week 6, with +3 turnover ratio leading to +13 edge in field position; they’ve won last three series games by 21-21-14 points, are 7-4 here, but this series has also been split four of last five years. Falcons were held to 14 or less points in four of their five losses; barring a monsoon, Carolina ain’t holding them under 14. Carolina won last two games, scoring 27-38 points; they’re 2-4 at home, beating Jaguars/Redskins. Panthers are 3-2 as underdogs this year, but eight of their ten losses are by 5+ points. NFC home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Last eight Falcon games stayed under total; last three Carolina games went over.
Buccaneers (4-8) @ Jaguars (3-9) - Tampa Bay lost last six games (1-5 vs spread), Jaguars lost last three and are on short week with smaller coaching staff after last week’s firings; they gave up last 24 points of game in sloppy home loss to Chargers Monday night. Tampa Bay is 1-3 as a favorite this year, 1-5 away from home, with only win in Week 2 at Minnesota when they trailed 17-0 at half. Jags have three TD’s on last 31 drives, scoring 12.3 ppg in losses last three weeks by 4-7-24 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, with all four decided by 7 or less points; Bucs lost both visits here, 29-24/17-10. Bucs allowed 365 rushing yards last two weeks, good news for fantasy owners who have Jones-Drew. Usually bad teams don’t respond well after losing national TV game, but if Freeman is still out for Bucs, who knows?
49ers (10-2) @ Cardinals (5-7) - Niners clinched division last week, but real prize is first round bye, so they’ve got to keep going here, vs Arizona team they beat 23-7 (-9.5) at Candlestick three weeks ago. 49ers outgained Arizona 431-229, outrushed them 164-80, forced five turnovers (+4) and converted 8-21 3rd down plays in that game, but that was with Skelton, not Kolb under center for Cards. Redbirds won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 3-2 at home, with 32-20 loss to Steelers only home loss by more than 4 points; they’re 1-2 as home dog this year. SF has started 26 drives in enemy territory, compared to six for opponents; they’re +18 in turnovers, Arizona is -8. 49ers won last five series games, with last four by average score of 28-7; Niners won last two visits to desert, 20-16/27-6.
Bears (7-5) @ Broncos (7-5) - Denver now 6-1 with Tebow starting at QB, winning last three weeks by 4-3-3 points; if game is close late, Broncos have supreme confidence in ability to pull game out. Can’t say same for Bears, who lost both of Hanie’s starts by 5-7 points; he’s thrown six INTs in two starts, converted only 6 of 25 3rd down plays and looks lost. Chicago had turned ball over only 12 times in Cutler’s 10 starts. Denver won/covered last five games; in four of their 12 games this year, the first Bronco TD was scored by defense/special teams. Bears won last two series meetings 19-10/37-34; four of last five series totals were 29 or less. Four of last five Chicago games went over total; three of Denver’s last four stayed under. Maybe return to Rocky Mountains will help Hanie (went to school at Colorado State) some here.
Bills (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7) - San Diego snapped 6-game skid Monday night on road vs anemic Jaguars, averaging 10.5 yards/pass attempt, getting them within two games of top spot in AFC West, but Chargers lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points- their last home win was October 2. Bolts have severe injury issues on OL, playing on short week could be problem. San Diego is 3-5 as favorite this year, 1-4 at home. Buffalo lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 2-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4, with Week 1 win at Arrowhead. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Bills lost last four trips here, by 33-2-3-38 points- their last win here was in ’81. AFC East road underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Underdogs are 0-6 vs spread this season the week after playing Tennessee.
