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The action in the Online Sportsbook on the Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Miguel Cotto fight on May 5 suggests that the huge underdog, Miguel Cotto, might actually have a shot. The betting line has moved 100 points since opening up at Mayweather -800. Floyd is now a -700 favorite with roughly a week to go before the battle.
Cotto has been saying a lot of smart things in the press. Perhaps, that’s the main reason for the drop in odds, but that can’t be the only reason. Every fighter eventually hits the wall, and some boxing handicappers might be thinking that Mayweather Jr.’s wall is coming up soon.
Is the supremely talented Floyd Mayweather Jr. due for a big disappointment? Perhaps. Keep reading for analysis on the battle between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Miguel Cotto.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. (42-0) vs. Miguel Cotto (39-2)
When: May 5
Where: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Betting Line: Floyd Mayweather Jr. -700
Miguel Cotto +450
Forget about looking at this fight from a purely technical standpoint. Miguel Cotto is horribly outmatched if one simply looks at overall hand speed, reach, height, and power. Based on those factors alone, Mayweather Jr. is going to pummel Cotto in the ring.
But a boxing match is more than just an analysis of each fighter’s physical attributes and boxing skills. Once the bell rings, there is nobody in the ring with the respective fighters. Boxers live on an island during those 3 minutes of every round. A lot can happen in 3 minutes.
5 Reasons Why Miguel Cotto Could Upset Floyd Mayweather Jr.
- Miguel Cotto might be the best fighter that Floyd has ever faced – - Don’t believe me? Zab Judah, Oscar De La Hoya and Shane Moseley were/are towards the end of their careers when Floyd beat them. Pacquiao put a beating on Juan Manuel Marquez, twice, before Floyd took him on. Not to mention the fact that Maquez doesn’t duck anybody. There were a lot of miles on the wheels when Mayweather took apart the car. Ricky Hatton was a straight up standing guy who won his fights purely on heart. Victor Ortiz…who is Victor Ortiz again? Floyd is facing the best fighter that he’s ever faced in his career.
- Floyd is preparing to spend time in the slammer while Cotto’s mind is purely on boxing – - Mayweather Jr. starts a 90 day jail sentence in June. Hey, Floyd’s extremely tough mentally, but any type of jail sentence has to work on a guy’s mind, right? It’s impossible for Floyd to be 100% focused on his fight with Miguel Cotto on May 5. It’s just impossible.
- Remember the Roy Jones Jr. lesson – - The Roy Jones Jr. lesson is this, if you keep fighting cupcakes during your career and hand pick opponents, eventually, you’ll get caught. Jones Jr. had a single blemish on his record, a DQ versus Montel Griffin, going into his second bout against Antonio Tarver in 2004. Tarver forced a TKO in Round 2 and Roy Jones Jr. was never the same. Mayweather Jr. has hand picked opponents since the start of his career in 1996. Eventually, he’s going to get caught.
- Cotto has a jab that could cause Floyd problems – - Cotto’s left jab was actually somewhat effective versus Manny Pacquiao, at least in the early rounds, in their fight. If Miguel Cotto can get his jab working against Floyd Mayweather Jr., causing Mayweather Jr. to backpedal some, and then pressure Floyd, he could steal a few rounds and put a degree of disbelief into Floyd’s mind.
- Miguel Cotto fights best in the later rounds – - A lesser fighter might have retired after taking a beating from someone like Manny Pacquiao. Instead of quitting, Miguel Cotto adjusted and ran off three straight TKO victories. More importantly, Cotto actually fought harder in rounds 10, 11 and 12 against Pac, after Manny almost shut Miguel’s right eye from rounds 1 through 9. The three straight TKO victories occurred in the later rounds as well: Cotto knocked out Yuri Foreman in Round 9, Ricardo Mayorga in Round 12 and Antonio Margarito in Round 10. The fact that Miguel Cotto fights harder the more that you beat him up (how else to write it?) is a testament to his amazing heart and desire.
- There’s no doubt that Floyd Mayweather Jr. is the more skilled fighter in his matchup with Miguel Cotto. But boxing is more than just skill and the best skilled fighter doesn’t always win the bout. There are reasons to believe that Miguel Cotto might, just might, upset Floyd Mayweather Jr. at the MGM Grand on May 5.Enjoy the fight!