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NFL Week 6 betting prediction: New York Giants vs San Francisco 49ers

October 13, 2012
By

Live Free Picks
Home Of 500 Handicappers

It’s a rematch of last season’s tremendous NFC Championship Game in one of Sunday’s marquee matchups as the Giants and 49ers face off at Candlestick Park for the third time in less than a year.

Last November, 49ers defensive tackle Justin Smith knocked down New York QB Eli Manning’s 4th-down pass from 49ers’ 10-yard line with 34 seconds remaining to preserve a 27-20 win. But in the NFC title game, New York won 20-17 in overtime thanks to two gaffes by San Francisco’s Kyle Williams.

The Giants, who are tied for the NFC East lead, beat Cleveland 41-17 last week. Manning and Victor Cruz hooked up for three touchdowns and the Giants closed out the first half with 20 consecutive points. Ahmad Bradshaw contributed a career-best 200 rushing yards and a touchdown on 30 carries to help the Giants (3-2) fight back from an early 14-0 deficit.

New York has two main injury concerns for this game. WR Hakeem Nicks has missed three straight games and is iffy again. He did only individual drills at practice Thursday.

Running back Andre Brown, who has been a pleasant surprise, has a concussion and almost certainly will miss this game. Rookie David Wilson would back up Bradshaw.

The 49ers, meanwhile, destroyed Buffalo 45-3 last week in becoming the first team in NFL history with 300 yards of passing and rushing offense. QB Alex Smith connected on 18-of-24 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns, while Frank Gore ran for 106 yards and a score on 14 carries for the 49ers (4-1), who gained a franchise-record 621 yards in their second straight blowout victory.

San Francisco beat the Jets in New York, 34-0, in Week 4 and scored the final 42 points Sunday to win going away. Smith said his sprained middle finger shouldn’t be a problem for Week 6.

San Francisco’s Williams is looking forward to the rematch. Williams fumbled twice on punt returns that helped the Giants pull out the win in the NFC title game.

“There’s a few teams that I look forward to. Of course after what happened last year, I definitely want to get back at these guys,” Williams said. “We look at it as if they have something that we should have had. We’re going to make sure we don’t leave anything on the field again.”

San Francisco owns the league’s second-ranked defense and top-ranked rushing attack. The Giants enter the game with the league’s second-best offense. New York put up more than 200 yards on the ground against the Browns but won’t see that kind of success against San Francisco, which has one of the best run defenses in the NFL.

The 49ers hold opponents to just 81 yards a game on the ground, or 3.24 yards per attempt. The last thing the Giants can afford to do is become one-dimensional and have to throw the ball to move the chains. The 49ers can bring a lot of heat from a lot of directions when they know their opponent has to throw the ball. An effective ground game will limit San Francisco’s options.

VEGASSPORTSBETTING ODDS: 49ers -6.5 (45.5)

GIANTS : Incl. playoffs, QB Eli Manning has won 4 of 5 vs. SF. Has 200 pass yards in 24 consecutive games, 2nd longest streak in NFL history. Incl. playoffs, has won 9 of past 11 … RB Ahmad Bradshaw had 126 scrimmage yards (74 rush, 52 rec.) in NFC Champ. Rushed for career-high 200 yards last week. Rookie RB DAVID WILSON had 40-yard TD run vs. Browns … WR Victor Cruz had career-best 3 TDs in Week 5.

Had 10 catches for 142 yards in NFC Champ. Since Jan. 1 (7 games), WR Hakeem Nicks has 47 catches for 757 yards (108.1 per game; 16.1 avg.) & 6 TDs. Rookie WR Rueben Randle had career-high 6 catches & 82 yards last week … LB Michael Boley leads NFL LBs with 3 INTs. DE Justin Tuck has 5 sacks in 4 career meetings, incl. 1.5 in NFC Champ. In 4 meetings (incl. playoffs), DE Osi Umenyiora has 3.5 sacks, 2 FRs & FF. CB Corey Webster aims for 3rd in row vs. SF (incl. playoffs) with INT or FF.

49ERS : Last week became 1st team in NFL history with 300 rush (311) & pass (310) yards. Had franchise-record 621 total net yards. QB Alex Smith leads NFL with 108.7 rating & had 156.3 rating last week. In career, SF is 13-0 when he starts & has 100 rating. Has won 18 of past 22 starts … Since 2006, RB Frank Gore has 7,449 rush yards, 2nd most in NFL. RB Kendall Hunter had 17-yard TD run in last reg. season meeting …

Incl. playoffs, TE Vernon Davis has 3 TDs in past 2 vs. NYG, incl. 3 catches for 112 yards (37.3 avg.) & 2 TDs in NFC Champ. Had 106 yards last week. Has 8 TDs in past 7 (incl. playoffs). Since 2009 (incl. playoffs), leads NFL TEs with 34 TDs. WR Mario Manningham faces former team (2008-11) for 1st time. Has TD in each of past 2 meetings (both for NYG), incl. NFC Champ. In past 6 vs. NYG, WR Randy Moss has 4 games with 100 yards & 2 TDs.

In those 4, has 30 catches for 512 yards (128 per game) & 9 TDs. WR Michael Crabtree had 6 catches for 113 yards & TD last week … DT Justin Smith had sack in NFC Champ. Incl. playoffs, LB Aldon Smith has 20.5 sacks in past 20. Since 2007, LB Patrick Willis is 1 of 2 players with 15 sacks (17) & 6 INTs (6).

VEGAS TRENDS: Giants are 8-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

49ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in October. 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. 49ers are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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