Betting Odds & MLB Predictions: Twins vs Padres 08/01/17

MLB Picks and Parlays: Minnesota Looks to Get Back on Track at San Diego

by @MattCashCapper

Vegas Odds by Bovada
Twins  -112
Padres O/U 8

Jhoulys Chacin

Dennis Green, the ex-Vikings and Cardinals NFL football coach is perhaps most famous for uttering the line, ‘they are who we thought they were. As it regards the Minnesota Twins, who’ve been sniffing around a playoff spot for a good chunk of the year, their post All-Star results show that they are not quite there yet. Essentially what we thought they were to start the year. Looking at their schedule, one could tell that the time up until the trade deadline would be a make of break time for this young and upcoming team.

Three of their first four series were against some of the best teams in baseball in Houston, the Yankees and the Dodgers. That level of competition not only demands their very best on those night, but can have a spill over effect when playing the more mediocre teams with the nightly demands of the baseball schedule. Add it all up and this team went 3-6 against the elites and 2-4 against Detroit and Oakland in and around those series. Their 5-10 record since the break coupled with the hot streaks of both Kansas City and Cleveland have now put them seven games out of first and five games out of the second wild card spot. In other words, it’ll take a huge turnaround to get back to the playoffs.

On Sunday they lost to Oakland 6-5 in 12 innings. The A’s came all the way back from an early 5-0 deficit to tie the game in the eighth before Yonder Alonso ended it with a home run. The Twins have lost six of their last seven.

San Diego Padres in the meanwhile has been inching themselves back to respectability ever since the last nine days of June. They are 21-14 ever since then. They are 7-4 in their last 11 and had a four-game winning streak snapped in the finale of their series with Pittsburgh on Sunday.

The Padres dropped a 7-1 decision after outscoring Pittsburgh 7-4 in taking the first two games of the series. This two-game series with Minnesota is the end of a nine-game homestand. The Padres record stands at 47-58.

The Twins are 22nd in the Majors since the break averaging 4.4 RPG and 19th with a 4.77 ERA.

The Padres are sixth in the Majors averaging 5.18 RPG since the break and 20th with a 4.83 ERA.

Jose Berrios (9-4, 3.76 ERA) has fallen back with a 5.79 ERA in five July starts after a promising first two months of the year. He also has a 4.89 ERA on the road versus a 2.61 ERA at home. He gave up four runs in four innings in a 6-2 loss to the Dodgers last time out. He gave up one run in 6.2 innings to the Yankees prior to that and seven runs (two earned) in 1.2 innings to the Astros three starts ago.

Jhoulys Chacin (10-7, 4.22 ERA) has had an incredible month of July, with a 2.51 ERA and the Padres have won each of his five starts. That follows a great June as well where he posted a 3.00 ERA in five starts.


Cash It In: The Twins are -112 favorites and the Padres -108 underdogs. Berrios has been a lot worse on the road, but he’s shown that he’s a battler in his starts against those elite teams. I think he’ll pitch well here, but Chacin has been rolling for two months and I think he’ll do enough to propel San Diego to a win. Padres 4-3.

MLB Expert Picks and Parlays: Padres -108 &  Under 8

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