MLB Odds and Picks: Yankees vs Astros 07/01/17

MLB Picks and Parlays: New York and Houston Meet in AL Showdown

by Matt Cash @MattCashCapper

Vegas Odds by Bovada
Yankees O/U 9½
Astros -130

Jordan Montgomery

These have not been good times in the Bronx as the New York Yankees have gone through a June swoon. It is now five series and counting since they last won one. And the teams the losses have been piling up against are not exactly la crème de la crème of baseball.

Ever since a dominant mid-June performance against Boston and Baltimore, the Yankees have gone on to face the Angels (twice), the A’s, Rangers and White Sox. Their combined record against those teams is 5-12 heading into this series.

As a result, their once healthy lead in the AL East has disappeared and they entered the weekend trailing the Red Sox by a game in spite Boston’s own mediocre play of late. 

Now they get to face an Houston Astros team that still owns the best record in baseball. It’s a team that went through its own dip mid-June after they had their 11-game winning streak snapped. They proceeded to go 4-8 before their recent turnaround.

The loss of both their aces at the same time, Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers Jr. was a gut punch as the streak came to an end. But McCullers came back quickly and with it so did the Astros fortunes.

They are now 8-2 in their last ten heading into this weekend. Their wins have all come against Seattle and Oakland.

An indicator of how good New York was in the first half of June is contained in the fact that they still finished the month second in ERA at 3.88 and first in runs scored at 6.07 RPG.

Houston’s electric offense finished right behind them at 5.88 RPG and the pitching was sixth in the AL with a 4.51 ERA.

Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.53 ERA) is having a solid rookie season and he’s really found his groove in the last seven starts. He’s lowered his ERA from 4.81 to the current 3.53. He finished June with a 2.59 ERA and went 4-0. The Yankees lost his one no-decision. He gave up one run in seven innings of a 6-5 win over Chicago in his last start.

Francis Marte (2-0, 5.51 ERA) has had an uneven start to his Major League career. At 21, he’s the youngest starter in the American League and it’s shown with his control issues. Last time out he was pulled after two innings and 63 pitches after allowing four walks and two runs to the Mariners. But Houston’s offense took over in an 8-2 win. They’ve won each of his three career starts scoring a total of 29 runs in the process.

 

Cash It In: Houston are -130 favorites, the Yankees +110 underdogs. Montgomery did not fare well in his first start versus the Astros, allowing four runs in six innings of work. But that start came in early May. He’s a much better pitcher now. The Yankees will look to get off to a hot start versus Marte for as long as he lasts. Yankees 7-4.

MLB Expert Picks and Parlays: Yankees +110  &  Over 9½

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