MLB Vegas Odds and Picks: Orioles vs Twins 07/06/17

MLB Picks and Parlays: Baltimore and Minnesota Get Started on Four-Game Series

by Matt Cash @MattCashCapper

Vegas Odds by Bovada
Orioles  O/U 9½
Twins -145

Jose Berrios

Baltimore Orioles has been slumping for weeks and it’s no mystery why that is. Their pitching has been atrocious, the worst in the Majors by a country mile. Their team ERA in the last 30 days -heading into Wednesday’s games- is 6.61. That’s a full 1.22 worse than Detroit who are 14th in the American League.

It’s almost a wonder that they are 11-17 over that time.

And that’s especially true because they’ve only managed to produce 4.36 RPG. That is 13th best in the AL over that time.

They’d lost four of five heading into Wednesday’s games, getting outscored 31-17 in the process.

Minnesota Twins has been treading water for over a month, trading short winning and losing streaks. They’ve been passed by Cleveland for first in the AL Central, but they are still within earshot of the lead. The Twins had won three of four heading into Wednesday’s games. And they have to be encouraged with 26 runs scored over that period.

A big reason for their stagnancy is an offense that’s run cold of late. They had scored just 52 runs in their previous 16 games which averages out to 3.25 RPG.

The team’s ERA is 5.33 over the past 30 days, but 4.19 in the past two weeks.

Dylan Bundy (8-7, 4.02 ERA) has caught the same bug that’s afflicted the majority of Baltimore’s pitches. His ERA has risen from 2.89 at the end of May to its current level. He gave up five runs in four innings in a 10-3 loss to the Rays in his last start. That 11.25 July ERA is fast on the heels of a 5.93 ERA for June. The Orioles are 2-4 in his last six starts over that period.

Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.44 ERA) has been having a solid sophomore campaign, but he’s hit a speed bump in his last two starts. He’s allowed nine runs in 11.1 innings to the Royals and Red Sox and the Twins dropped both games.

Prior to that he was on a four-game run where he’s allowed eight runs over 27.1 innings and he won each of those starts.

 

Cash It In: Minnesota are -145 favorites and Baltimore are +125 underdogs. Another thing to consider is Baltimore is just 15-27 on the road, second worst in the AL. Their team ERA on the road is a league worst 5.91. On the other hand, Minnesota has the worst home record in the AL at 18-25. They have a league worst 5.45 ERA at home. All that being said, I’ll go with the team that is winning more often than not these days. Twins 6-5.  

MLB Expert Picks and Parlays: Twins -145  &  Over 9½

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