MLB Picks and Parlays: Milwaukee Heads to New York on a Hot Streak
by Matt Cash @MattCashCapper
First place appears to agree with Milwaukee Brewers well, thank you very much. This is a team that not many had pegged for the top of the standings when the season began, but they’ve been hanging out at or near the top since the second half of May.
Currently they’ve opened up a sizeable 4.5 game lead over second place Chicago as they are the only team in the division that’s been winning with any consistency for the past few weeks.
The Brewers are 12-8 in their last 20 and 7-3 in their past ten. They’re coming to New York winners of seven out of their last eight and that includes an 11-2 win over the Cubs in a make-up game on Thursday. Prior to that, they had swept the Orioles. In their past four games, they’ve outscored their opponents 29-5.
New York Yankees is another team that few had pegged for the top of the standings heading into the season, but that’s exactly where they found themselves for most of the first two and a half months. They were at their apex on June 12th, winners of six straight including five over their closest competitors Baltimore and Boston. They outscored those teams 60-12 in the process. But a disastrous West Coast trip followed where they went 1-6 and they’ve been struggling to find their game ever since.
The Yankees are in fact 6-16 since the losses began to pile up and it’s led to them falling four games back of Boston for the division lead.
They’ve allowed 5.5 RPG over that span while scoring 4.86 RPG. So clearly the offense has fallen off a little bit from the league best rates they were putting up for the first 60 games or so. But the real story is the pitching staff which was also among the top-two in the AL is now in the bottom five over that period.
Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.93 ERA) has seen his ERA blow up after two straight rough starts. He’s allowed 12 runs in eight innings and the Brewers have lost both games. He came back from injury on May 26th and had six straight solid starts allowing 11 runs over 34.2 innings.
Jordan Montgomery (6-4, 3.62 ERA) is one Yankees pitcher who has not caught the slumping bug. The rookie has allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. New York is just 4-4 in those games. They lost 7-6 in his last start to Houston and he allowed three runs in 5.1 innings.
- Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing NY Yankees
- NY Yankees is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games
NY Yankees is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees’s last 6 games
Cash It In: The Yankees are -194 favorites and the Brewers are +167 underdogs. A solid case could be made for Milwaukee here, but with the Yankees offense still producing and a solid Montgomery on the mound, look for them to find a way to win. Yankees 6-4.
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