Alabama, Michigan State Risky as Huge Favorites?

Two marquee schools, two overmatched small schools, two games where bettors should beware.

Alabama and Michigan are perennial powerhouses and face two of the biggest point spreads of Week 4 of the college football season.

But scratch beneath the surface and you will find their opponents have caused them angst in recent years. And you will find some hesitation to back the Tide or Sparty against UL-Monroe and Central Michigan respectively, according to the OddsShark.com college football database.

Bama comes off a rare home loss and gets the Warhawks at home as 38-point favorites. But recall 2007 when UL-Monroe went to Bama as 24-points dogs and won 21-14. If you are looking for more reasons to fade the Tide, they are 2-11 ATS since Nov. 2011 when laying 30 points or more and 0-4 ATS vs Sun Belt schools since 2011, while outscoring them 161-10 in four games.

Watch for huge underdog lines and great player props and Heisman updates at Bodog

Think back a little further and realize that the only time Michigan State has lost outright as a double-digit home favorite in the past 25 games was to Central Michigan. They give 27 points to CMU and the Spartans have covered three in a row since 2014 when giving at least 27 points. But Spartans fans and bettors will recall the 29-27 final back on Sept. 12, 2009.

Thursday bettors looking for a moneyline upset might not find it on Cincinnati. The last time Cincinnati won as a double-digit road dog was Sept. 16, 1995 at Virginia Tech and they currently get 10 points at Memphis.

Check out trends on other key matches this week.

USC at Arizona State
  • Arizona State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games against USC.
  • The total has gone under in USC’s last four games on the road.
  • USC is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games on the road in September.
  • Arizona State is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
  • Arizona State is 6-0 SU in its last six games at home.
Texas A&M at Arkansas
  • Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in its six games against Texas A&M
  • Texas A&M is 4-0 SU in its last four games.
  • The total has gone over in seven of Texas A&M’s last nine games on the road in September, with one push.
  • The total has gone under in seven of Arkansas’ last eight games.
  • Arkansas is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games in September.
LSU at Syracuse
  • The total has gone under in six of LSU’s last eight games.
  • LSU is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games in September.
  • LSU is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
  • Syracuse is 3-0 ATS in its last three games against the SEC.
  • Syracuse is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home in September.
Georgia Tech at Duke
  • Georgia Tech is 9-1 SU in its 10 games against Duke on the road.
  • Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games.
  • Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road in September.
  • The total has gone under in Duke’s last four games in September.
  • The total has gone under in five of Duke’s last six games at home.
Rice at Baylor
  • When Baylor is favored by 30 or more, they are 10-1 favoring the OVER – Baylor has been favored by 26 points or more their past four regular-season games and failed to cover either time. They are -34.5.
  • Baylor is 3-0 SU and ATS in its three games against Rice
  • Rice is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games.
  • Rice is 6-0 ATS in its last six games on the road in September.
  • The total has gone over in five of Baylor’s last six games.
  • Baylor is 18-0 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Oklahoma State at Texas
  • Texas (+3 vs Oklahoma State) has been a home underdog just nine times since 2003 and has lost eight times (2-7 ATS).
  • Texas is 14-4 SU in its 18 games against Oklahoma State.
  • Oklahoma State is 5-0 SU in its last five games.
  • Oklahoma State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games on the road in September.
  • Texas is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games.
  • The total has gone over in Texas’ last three games at home.
Louisiana-Monroe at Alabama
  • Louisiana-Monroe is 0-5 SU in its last five games against the SEC.
  • Louisiana-Monroe is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games.
  • Louisiana-Monroe is 1-7 SU in its last eight games at road.
  • Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home in September.
  • Alabama is 13-1 SU in its 14 games against the Sun Belt.
Vanderbilt at Mississippi
  • Ole Miss, coming off upset of Bama, riding 6-1 ATS streak when laying 20 or more points (-24.5 vs Vandy)
  • The total has gone under in seven of Vanderbilt’s last nine games against Mississippi.
  • Vanderbilt is 1-5 SU in its last six games.
  • Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road.
  • Mississippi is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games.
  • Mississippi is 5-0 SU in its last five games at home in September.
UCLA at Arizona
  • UCLA is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games against Arizona.
  • UCLA is 8-0 SU in its last eight games on the road.
  • The total has gone under in all three of UCLA’s games so far this season.
  • Arizona is 8-1 SU in its last nine games at home in September.
  • Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games at home.
Utah at Oregon
  • Utah (+11 at Oregon) 12-3 ATS since 1995 as double-digit road underdog
  • Oregon is 5-1 SU in its six games against Utah.
  • The total has gone under in 11 of Utah’s last 14 games.
  • Utah is 6-1 ATS in it last seven games on the road.
  • Oregon is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games.
  • Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five games in September.
BYU at Michigan
  • BYU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
  • BYU is 4-0 ATS in its last four games on the road.
  • BYU is 6-1 SU in its last seven games in September.
  • The total has gone under in six of Michigan’s last seven games.
  • Michigan is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games at home in September.
Mississippi State at Auburn
  • Auburn is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games against Mississippi State.
  • Mississippi State is 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games in September.
  • The total has gone under in Mississippi’s last five games against the SEC.
  • Auburn is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games.
  • Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last five games.
Western Michigan at Ohio State
  • Ohio State (-34.5 vs Western Michigan) is 1-5 ATS streak when favored by at least 30 points
  • Western Michigan is 0-14 SU in its last 14 games against the Big Ten.
  • Western Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in September.
  • The total has gone under in 10 of Western Michigan’s last 13 games on the road.
  • Ohio State is 16-0 SU in its last 16 games.
  • Ohio State is 28-2 SU in its last 30 games at home in September.
Central Michigan at Michigan State
  • Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its six games against Central Michigan.
  • Central Michigan is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September.
  • Central Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four games on the road.
  • Michigan State is 7-0 SU in its last seven games.
  • The total has gone over in four of Michigan State’s last five games at home in September.
TCU at Texas Tech
  • TCU is 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10 games against the Big 12.
  • TCU is 11-0 SU in its last 11 games.
  • The total has gone under in four of TCU’s last five games on the road in September.
  • Texas Tech is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games against the Big 12.
  • Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
Massachusetts at Notre Dame
  • Notre Dame (-29 vs UMass) has been favored by 28 or more points just six times since 1995 – all six played UNDER
  • Massachusetts is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
  • Massachusetts is 0-23 SU in its last 23 games in September.
  • The total has gone over in seven of Massachusetts’ last eight games on the road.
  • The total has gone under in 11 of Notre Dame’s last 12 games at home in September.
  • Notre Dame is 4-0 SU in its last four games.
Cincinnati at Memphis
  • Last time Cincinnati won as a double-digit road dog was Sept. 16, 1995 at Virginia Tech.
  • Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against Memphis.
  • Cincinnati is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games.
  • Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games on the road in September.
  • The total has gone over in Memphis’ last six games.
  • Memphis is 4-0 SU in its last four games at home.
Boise State at Virginia
  • Boise State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games.
  • The total has gone over in Boise State’s last four games on the road.
  • Boise State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road in September.
  • Virginia is 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games.
  • Virginia is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against the Mountain West.

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