Best wait late to fade 7-0 ATS TCU – 10-27-2014


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Each week during the college football season,
Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you
which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which
total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State opened as 13-point home favorites over Oklahoma
State, but expect this line to tick up at least to the key
number of 14. The Wildcats were in a terrible situational
spot last Saturday after upsetting Oklahoma on the road the
week before, but they still came to play and beat Texas 23-0.

Oklahoma State is finally struggling like many thought it
would at the beginning of the season.  The Cowboys have
lost back-to-back games by a combined score of 76-19. 
They’ve shown nothing that indicates they can turn things
around, especially against a good team like Kansas

It would be wise to lay the points now with Kansas State
before the line goes up to and possibly higher than the key
number of 14.

Spread to wait

TCU Horned Frogs at West
Virginia Mountaineers (+6)

Texas Christian was originally posted as a 4-point road
favorite at West Virginia, and the early money quickly came
in on the Horned Frogs, moving the line up to -6.  I
expect the line to go up some more, especially when the
public bettors get involved.

Texas Christian comes in off an incredible 82-27 home win
over Texas Tech.  The Horned Frogs are a perfect 7-0 ATS
this season, so they are sure to attract public money in this
game. West Virginia has been undervalued all season by the
oddsmakers and bettors alike, and it’s the case once again in
this contest.

The home dog Mountaineers hold the value in this game and it
will be greater closer to kick off.

Total to watch

Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes

Northwestern and Iowa are two teams built the same way. 
Both teams have conservative coaches that prefer to play ball
control and win with their defense. The Wildcats are only
averaging 20.9 points per game on just 4.6 yards per play
this season. The Hawkeyes are averaging 27 points per game on
5.1 yards per play.

Both defenses have played above average football this year.
Northwestern is allowing only 20.4 points per game on 5.1
yards per play versus offenses averaging 29.4 points per game
on 5.8 yards per play. Iowa is allowing just 21.9 points per
game on 5.2 yards per play versus opponents averaging 28.1
points per game on 5.4 yards per play. 

There will be value on the Under if the oddsmakers keep this
total at 45 or higher.


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