USA TODAY Sports
Despite losing Games 5 and 6 by 15 and 14 points respectively and allowing the Cleveland Cavaliers to become just the third team in NBA Finals history to force a Game 7 after trailing the series 3-1, there is still reason for hope and still reason to bet the Warriors.
Of course the obvious is known, no team had ever come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals, but there’s more.
It is very rare for home teams to lose Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs.
Dating back to 1991-92 (as far back as Covers records go), home teams are 54-14 (79.4 percent) in Game 7’s during the NBA playoffs and more importantly for bettors, home teams are 41-26-1 against the spread in those games. That’s a 61.2 percent success rate.
Taking this year’s Game 7 line into account, currently at Warriors -5, home teams of -4.5 or greater are a profitable 31-18-1 ATS in that scenario. Good for a success rate of 63.3 percent.
When it comes to totals in Game 7’s, the Under has been the slightly better bet going 37-30-1, cashing 55.2 percent of the time. However, when the total is above 200, like it is in Sunday night’s Game 7 (currently 207), the Over is 10-5 (66.7 percent).
So, while things haven’t looked good for the Warriors the last two games, betting history is still on their side.