Despite owning a career record of 0-3 against the New England Patriots – losing by an average of 26 points – Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck is a -130 favorite to throw for more than 295 yards in one of the featured NFL props for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at Bodog.
Luck has topped that number in 11 of 18 games so far between the regular season and playoffs, and he has also thrown for 303 yards or more in the three previous meetings with the Patriots.
Of course a lot of that has to do with Indianapolis playing from behind for much of all three of those games. But Luck is an even bigger favorite to throw more than one touchdown pass against New England at -210. He has tossed two TD passes in each of the three games versus the Patriots while totaling eight interceptions, which is the main reason the betting line is -260 he will throw at least one pick and +200 that he will not.
On the other side, bettors may be somewhat surprised to see New England QB Tom Brady has similar odds to Luck for passing yards and touchdowns even though he has not needed to throw the ball much in the last two games against the Colts.
Brady’s total for passing yards is 285.5 at Bodog, with the OVER a slight -125 favorite, and he went UNDER that number eight times in 16 games between the regular season and playoffs (not including Week 17 when he only played the first half against the Buffalo Bills). He has averaged 227.5 passing yards in the past two meetings with a combined two TDs and two interceptions, all of which came in a 42-20 road win in Week 11.
The Patriots have done most of their offensive damage on the ground in the last two games against Indy. New England running back Jonas Gray erupted for a career-high 201 yards on 37 carries and scored four TDs in the latest meeting between the teams, but he has totaled just 80 yards and one score in four games combined since then and was inactive in last Saturday’s 35-31 AFC Divisional Playoff win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Fellow RB LeGarrette Blount has stepped in nicely for Gray after re-signing with the Patriots following his release by the Pittsburgh Steelers. Blount rolled over the Colts in last year’s 43-22 victory in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, carrying the ball 24 times for 166 yards and scoring four TDs.
Depending on whether or not Gray is active on Sunday, Blount may be worth betting to go OVER 45.5 rushing yards (-130), OVER 10 carries (-125) and score a touchdown (+120) at Bodog.