Could MLB Under run get derailed by Championship Series Overtrend?

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If you’ve been riding the wave of Unders in the MLB
playoffs so far, you may want to reel back your bets on more
low-scoring games as the Championship Series start up this
week.

So far in the postseason, MLB games have gone 6-10 Over/Under
– most notably in the National League, which owns a 2-7 O/U
count heading into Saturday’s Game 1 between the San
Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals.

But a look back at the last 10 years of Championship Series
baseball, the Over has been the wise wager with ALCS and NLCS
action combining for a 69-43-5 O/U record – 62 percent Over.
The American League Championship Series games, thanks in part
to the designated hitter, are 36-18-4 O/U (67% Over) going
back to 2003.

Underdogs have also been the hot bet in October 2014, with
favorites limping out to a 5-11 start to the playoffs.
Favorites have been the winner more often than not in
Championship Series over the last 10 postseasons – going a
combined 65-52 – but due to the moneyline, baseball bettors
wagering exclusively on favorites would be deep in the red
despite the winning record.

Home-field advantage hasn’t played much of a factor in this
year’s playoff results, with host teams going 8-8. However,
looking back to 2003, home teams have won 68 of 117
postseason matchups for a winning percentage of .589. Again,
due to the cost to play home sides on the moneyline, this
winning rate is far from profitable.

Last season, the two Championship Series – St. Louis vs. L.A.
Dodgers and Boston vs. Detroit – produced a 4-6-2 Over/Under
count, with the home teams posting an 8-4 record in that
span.

Oddsmakers have the Baltimore Orioles set as -125 home
favorites versus the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the ALCS
Friday, with the total at 7 runs. The Cardinals are -132 home
favorites hosting the Giants in Game 1 of the NLCS Saturday.
That total sits at 6.5 runs.

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