The Dallas Cowboys are in unfamiliar territory for Sunday’s contest with the New England Patriots, being tabbed as double-digit home underdogs for the first time since 1990.
- The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven games between the Patriots and Cowboys
- Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden is 0-11 in his career when starting.
- The Patriots lead the NFL with 39.7 points per game.
New England (3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) will have some fresh legs thanks to a Week 4 bye, while the Cowboys (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) are badly banged up and are clearly missing two of their franchise players in star quarterback Tony Romo and talented wideout Dez Bryant.
Despite the rest, the Pats are historically poor performers after a bye week for bettors. Bill Belichick’s crew are just 1-4-1 ATS in the last six years following the bye.
Covering the spread hasn’t been an easy task for the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. The ‘Boys are an ugly 1-6 ATS in their last seven home contests. .
Opening Odds & Computer Pick
Betting fans looking to side with the Dallas Cowboys in this one found them as 7.5-point underdogs earlier in the week at 5Dimes and it was already climbing to 10 points at some books, while the total was sitting at 49.
Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 30-18 win for the Patriots (*this was generated earlier with an error predicting a Cowboys victory, this has been corrected). View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys Matchup
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
The Dallas Cowboys currently sport a record of 2-2, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 1-3 ATS. The New England Patriots are 3-0 and 2-0-1 ATS. Betting totals have seen the Dallas Cowboys post a 2-2 over under record this season, while the New England Patriots have gone 2-1 against the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Dallas vs New England injuries news.
The Cowboys – Patriots odds would favor the Patriots if the betting lines were set according to power ranks. Dallas is rated No. 9 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Patriots sit at No. 1.
The game also pits Dallas’s No. 15-ranked offense, averaging 23.75 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 17 this week at 23.33 PPG. The Cowboys aerial game is averaging 261.5 yards per game, more than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 251.67 YPG per game.
In comparing defenses, the New England Patriots own the league’s No. 30-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 160 yards per game when on the road. Dallas, on the other hand, rates No. 18 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
LeGarrette Blount rushed for 3 TDs as New England earned a 51-17 win over Jacksonville in their last outing on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
In their last game, the Cowboys were Week 4 losers coming out on the wrong end of 26-20 score against New Orleans.
- New England is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games
- New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
- Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
- Dallas is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’s last 6 games
- Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Next Betting Matchups
New England at Indianapolis, Sunday, October 18th
Dallas at New York, Sunday, October 25th