with a bracket – which seems like just about everybody this time of year – has teams they not only want to see
win, but teams they’d really like to see lose in the NCAA Tournament.
Sportsbook operators are certainly no different, and often have a lot more on
Covers checked in with a few folks on that
subject: Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US here in Las
Vegas; Greg Sindall, senior oddsmaker for online site SportsInteraction; Sean
Van Patten, sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget in downtown Vegas; and
the lines manager for offshore sportsbook GTBets.eu.
conversations, here are five teams sportsbooks don’t want to win the NCAA
No. 2 seed in the West Region, is coming off a stout run through the Pac-12 tournament,
beating UCLA and Oregon – title contenders both – on successive nights, in the
semifinals and finals here at Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena. The ‘Cats (30-4 SU,
18-14-2 ATS) have gone 24-2 SU over their last 26 games.
Nugget opened Sean Miller’s squad at 30/1, and the Wildcats are now at 10/1.
Van Patten pointed to logistics as part of the issue.
“We’ve got a
property in Laughlin,” he said, noting that shop is right across the Colorado
River from Arizona. “We tend to get some decent Arizona bets. Nothing huge, but
enough to give us some liability.”
the logistics front, Arizona doesn’t have any heavy travel, with the first two
rounds in Salt Lake City, then San Jose for the second weekend, and – should
the Wildcats keep rolling – the Final Four in nearby Glendale, Ariz.
playing out West throughout the tournament,” Van Patten said. “They’re a very
good team. I like Arizona to go all the way, so I hope we don’t get beat too
bad by them.”
would also like to see someone put out the ‘Cats.
“We have the
most liability on Arizona at 19-1, with them taking both the highest dollar
amount in liability and also actual number of bets,” GTBets’ lines manager said.
Arizona at 20/1 and moved the Wildcats to 45/1 in December, but the squad’s
long string of success has tightened those odds significantly.
Mountaineers (26-8 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) are also out West, as the No. 4 seed.
They’ve certainly got the look of a dangerous team, nearly notching two wins
this season over Kansas, the top seed in the Midwest Region. West Virginia
rolled at home, 85-69, then had the Jayhawks on the ropes in Lawrence before
allowing a late comeback in an 84-80 overtime loss.
squad reached the Big 12 tournament final, losing to Iowa State 80-74 as a
really in serious liability to anyone yet,” Bogdanovich said of William Hill’s
concerns. “But we’re a small loser to West Virginia. West Virginia and UCLA are
two teams we wouldn’t want to win.”
Mountaineers opened 75/1 at WillHill and are currently 25/1.
surely aren’t rooting for injuries, but the loss of forward Chris Boucher (11.8
ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.5 bpg) to a torn ACL in last week’s Pac-12 tourney surely
hinders Oregon’s cause. Still, the Ducks (29-5 SU, 19-14 ATS) are a solid
squad, winning the regular-season conference title and, after losing Boucher,
pushing Arizona until the end of the conference final before losing 83-80 as a
“We took a lot of
action on Oregon in early December, when the Ducks were paying +2500 (25/1),”
Sindall said of the Midwest’s No. 3 seed. “Those odds look great now for the
people who bet them, as they are currently listed at +1500 leading into the
tournament. Oregon has one of the biggest liabilities on the NCAA Tournament
futures market, and the Ducks winning would not be good for the book.”
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Yes, you read that right. Minnesota. The Golden Nugget is a rather
unique property when it comes to sports betting, as Van Patten explains.
“It has to do with the Golden Nugget being a big Minnesota/Wisconsin
stop for the out-of-towners,” he said. “They like to bet the Twins, the Wild,
the Vikings, everything Minnesota here.”
That includes the Gophers, who opened a massive 300/1 shot, dropped to
100/1 at the end of the regular season and are now 60/1 heading into the NCAA
Tourney as the South’s No. 5 seed.
“Our biggest loser is Minnesota,” Van Patten said.
The Gophers (24-9 SU, 19-12 ATS) reached the Big Ten tourney final,
losing to Michigan 84-77 as a 4-point underdog, and have won nine of their last
11 (8-3 ATS).
Duke Blue Devils
Duke lost a little luster by dropping three of its last four
regular-season games, but got it right back by making a four-game run through
the ACC tournament to win the conference championship from the No. 5 seed. That
included a 93-83 semifinal victory as a 4-point pup against archrival North
Carolina – the No. 1 seed in the South Region – and a 75-69 win over Notre Dame
laying 4.5 points in the final.
“As one of the biggest public teams in NCAA basketball, there is
always a lot of public money on the Blue Devils,” Sindall said of the
East’s No. 2 seed. “Entering the tournament with some momentum, Duke has taken
more action than any team so far this week. At the start of the week, we had
Duke listed at +800 to cut down the nets. But with so much money coming in on
the Blue Devils, we’ve had to cut the price down to +650.”
There were a few other teams the bookmakers noted: Bogdanovich’s
aforementioned UCLA (“We’ve got the most tickets on UCLA, by one over
Kansas.”); defending champion Villanova and fellow No. 1 seed Gonzaga; and even
a 13th-seeded dark horse.
“Some players are taking a stab at East Tennessee State, looking for a
nice payday on 1500/1 odds,” GTBets’ lines manager said. “The Buccaneers are
our second-worst outcome thus far.”
But to be sure, more liability on more teams will come with the flood of
bettors heading to Vegas this week.
“There’s gonna be so much money bet the next two or three days, there
will be somebody else we have liability with,” Bogdanovich said. “I guarantee
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based
senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.