If you’ve been betting hockey this season you noticed that OVERs were cashing at a ridiculous rate in the early goings. That trend has levelled off as most teams seem to have found their bearings. The Philadelphia Flyers, however, have not.
They have cashed 11 OVERs in their 16 games and have just two UNDERs. Their games have had by far the highest average of total goals as they’ve scored the second most in the league and are tied with the Calgary Flames for allowing the most.
If you’d tossed $100 on every Flyers’ OVER this year it would’ve profited you exactly seven 100 dollar bills but watch out for high total matchups as I’ve even cashed a couple total props of OVER 6.5 and even an OVER 7.5 when they played the Leafs last Friday.
I don’t anticipate this trend changing too much. Their goaltending and defense has been awful, they just lost Michel Neuvirth for an extended period and were forced to call up Anthony Stolarz from Lehigh Valley in the NHL. Additionally, they play in the highest scoring division in hockey and the Flyers can flat out score.
A surprising trend within the OVER trend is that the O/U is 10-2 when Philly’s games have closed with a total of 5.5 and is 1-1-2 when they’ve closed at 5. What this means is that when the Flyers are getting totals of 5.5 Vegas is pretty damn sure their games are going to have goals.
I recommend riding this OVER whenever the total is 5.5 or if the Flyers are up against any team who are in the bottom half in goals given up per game.
With that advice, you will want to take that OVER when they go up against the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday. The Jets have given up the fifth-most goals in the league and with both these teams offenses clicking, we could see a repeat of their game in 2011 that resulted in a 9-8 Jets’ win.
Maybe keep on the lookout for the ol’ OVER 16.5. I’m of course kidding but I will be making a sizeable bet on the OVER 5.5 and I will be on the lookout for props offering larger totals.
All the pucks scored in the Jets’ and Flyers’ 9-8 game back in 2011.