Forty-nine need-to-know betting notes for Super Bowl XLIX

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With thousands of proposition bets available across the globe in addition to the point spread and total, the Super Bowl is a betting enthusiasts’ euphoric dream. 

The smorgasbord of wagering dishes has become so expansive in recent years that a respectable amount of research can result in a significant financial windfall for sharp and square bettors alike.

The good news? We’re here to take some of that research off of your plate so you can spend more time focusing on how many buffalo wings it will take to feed your entire Super Bowl party.

1. Since 2010, the Seahawks are a perfect 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS when playing an opponent that is averaging 27 or more points per game. The Patriots averaged 29.2 points per game during the regular season in 2014.

2. Only six of the 48 previous Super Bowls closed with a point spread of three or fewer points. No Super Bowl has ever closed at a pick’em.

3. Underdogs have won three straight Super Bowls, four of the last five and five of the last seven.

4. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS over their last four Super Bowl appearances.

5. The Patriots are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass, while the Seahawks are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games played on grass.

6. Since 2000, Super Bowls with a total of 47 or higher have gone Under in six of eight instances.

7. The Under is 4-1 in New England’s last five Super Bowls and 11-5 in Seattle’s last 16 matchups against teams with a winning record.

8. When it comes to the coin toss, “Heads” had been the correct call five times in a row before “Tails” came through last February.  However, note that streaks and trends when it comes to the coin toss are completely irrelevant.  “Heads” and “Tails” each have a 50 percent chance of coming up Sunday.

9. The winner of the coin toss has gone on to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy 24 times in 48 Super Bowls (50 percent).

10. Since Tom Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Patriots have elected to defer when winning the coin toss every possible time except once – a 2013 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals that took place in a driving rainstorm. 

11. Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has elected to defer 19 consecutive times when winning the opening coin toss.

12. The team that scores first in the Super Bowl is 32-16 (66.6 percent) SU.

13. Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka has produced touchbacks on 52 percent of his kickoff attempts this season.  Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski has produced touchbacks on 61 percent of his kickoffs in 2014 when the weather is 60 degrees or warmer.

14. Only 13 of 48 (27.08 percent) Super Bowls have featured a successful field goal of 45 or more yards.  The total for longest field goal on Sunday is 44.5 yards, with the Over at -130 and the Under at +110.

15. Over his seven-year career, Hauschka has converted 129 field goals, 24 of which (18.6 percent) have come from 45 or more yards.  Over his nine-year career, Gostkowski has converted 248 field goals, 48 of which (19.35 percent) have come from 45 or more yards.

16. In 2014, New England ranked 12th in the NFL in first quarter points (78), first in second quarter points (183), seventh in third quarter points (101) and 11th in fourth quarter points (106). Additionally, the Patriots ranked second in the NFL in first half point differential (+95) and fifth in second half point differential (+60).

17. In 2014, Seattle ranked 16th in first quarter points (67), ninth in second quarter points (117), 13th in third quarter points (82) and fourth in fourth quarter points (122).  Additionally, the Seahawks ranked 11th in first half point differential (+40) and first in second half point differential (+94).

18. Prop: The highest-scoring quarter of the Super Bowl will be: First quarter at 9/2, second quarter at 3/2, third quarter at 7/2, fourth quarter at 2/1.

19. 27 of the last 39 (69.2 percent) Super Bowls have featured more points scored during the second half of the game over the first half.

20. During the 2014 regular season, New England ranked second in the league in turnover differential (+12) while Seattle ranked fourth (+10). The Over/Under on total interceptions for Sunday is 1.5 (Over -140, Under +120) while the total fumbles is 1.5 (Over +165, Under -185).

21. New England ranked fifth in the NFL in end of half scoring (scores that come within the final two minutes of the half) this season while Seattle ranked 14th. “Will either team score in the final two minutes of the first half” is listed at Yes -250, No +210.

22. The Over/Under on rushing yards for Patriots running LeGarrette Blount is 61.5 (-110 both ways). In 76 career games, Blount has eclipsed 61.5 rushing yards 26 times (34.2 percent). In 25 career games with the Patriots, Blount has topped the 61.5-yard mark nine times (36 percent). Seattle surrendered an average of just 81.5 rushing yards per game in 2014, good for third-best in the NFL.

23. At Super Bowl media day, every single Seattle defender I spoke with reiterated the same point about New England’s offense: The Seahawks plan to shut down the Patriots’ rushing attack and force quarterback Tom Brady to beat them through the air.

24. All four franchises that defeated the Seahawks in 2014 recorded at least 27 rushing attempts and 100-plus rushing yards.

25. The Over/Under on passing touchdowns for Brady is currently listed at 2.5, with the Over posted at +160 and the Under at -200.  Brady threw three or more touchdown passes in only six of 18 games this season (33.3 percent). The Seattle defense permitted just one quarterback (Philip Rivers, Week 2) to throw three or more touchdown passes against it in 18 contests this season (5.5 percent).

26. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has recorded a run of 15 or more yards in 25 of 55 career NFL starts (45.4 percent). The Over/Under on Wilson’s longest run on Sunday is currently listed at 14.5 yards (-110 both ways).

27. Wilson averaged 7.3 rushing attempts per game in 18 contests this season.  The Over/Under on the Seattle quarterback’s rushing attempts for Sunday is 7.5.

28. Wilson averaged 115.3 passing yards during the first half of play in 2014 and 104.2 passing yards during the second half of play.  The “Russell Wilson will have more gross passing yards in which half” prop is currently listed at first half +115, second half -135.

29. Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski recorded 78 or more receiving yards in a game nine times in 17 outings this season (52.9 percent), but Seattle’s defense limited opposing tight ends to an average of just 38.5 receiving yards per game during the regular season in 2014 (fourth-best in NFL). The Over/Under on Gronk receiving yards in currently posted at 77.5 (-110 both ways).

30. PGA golfer Phil Mickelson is averaging a fourth-round score of 69.8 over his last five starts at the Waste Management Open.  Mickelson’s fourth-round score on Sunday is currently listed at +6.5 vs. Gronkowski’s total receiving yards in the Super Bowl.

31. There has only been one instance in Super Bowl history (Dallas in 1979) in which a defending champion has been listed as an underdog.

32. Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell amassed 51 or more receiving yards in 11 of 18 outings this season (61.1 percent). However, LaFell’s best numbers came when he lined up outside of the hash marks, which plays directly into the strength of the Seattle defense.

33. Wilson produced a passer rating of 95.0 in 2014 (10th in NFL), but that number dropped to 88.05 when the Seattle quarterback faced an opposing blitz.  However, New England blitzed opposing quarterbacks in passing situations just 108 times during the regular season, which checked in as the third-fewest in the league.

34. 143 penalties were called against the Seahawks in 2014 while 133 penalties were called against the Patriots. The “Most Penalty Yards” prop is currently listed at Seattle -140, New England +120.

35. In the only previous encounter between Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman and New England quarterback Tom Brady, Brady threw at Sherman 10 times, completing just three passes with a touchdown and an interception.  “Will Richard Sherman record an interception” is currently listed at Yes +190 and No -230.

36. For the 11th time in the last 12 Super Bowls, the starting signal-caller representing the AFC is named either Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Ben Roethlisberger.

37. Since 2001, Brady leads the NFL in postseason game-winning drives with eight.  Wilson ranks third over that same time span with three.

38. The Super Bowl-winning quarterback has been named the game’s Most Valuable Player in six of the last eight contests. Brady is currently listed at 8/5 to win the MVP award, with Wilson posted at 7/2.

39. During the 2014 regular season, the Patriots averaged 22.6 first downs made per game (fourth in NFL) while the Seahawks averaged 20.5 first downs made (14th in NFL). On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots permitted an average of 20.6 first downs made per game (tenth-most in NFL), while the Seahawks surrendered fewer first downs made than any other team in the business (17.3 per game). New England is currently posted at -1.5 over Seattle to record more first downs in Sunday’s Super Bowl (-110 both ways).

40. Teams that scored 40 or more points in their conference championship game have gone 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in the Super Bowl.

41. The Patriots surrendered just six rushing touchdowns during the 2014 regular season (third fewest in NFL). The “Will Marshawn Lynch score a touchdown” prop is currently listed at Yes -150, No +130.

42. Golden State Warriors point guard Steph Curry is averaging 7.5 3-point attempts and 2.9 3-point conversions per game this year, with at least four 3-pointers made in 13 of 43 (30.2 percent) contests.  Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski is averaging 2.0 field goal conversions per game this season, while Seahawks kicker Steven Hauschka is averaging 1.77 field goal conversions per game in 2014.  Curry 3-pointers made vs. the Phoenix Suns on Saturday night is +0.5 (-145) vs. total field goals made in Sunday’s Super Bowl.

43. Seattle punter Jon Ryan averaged 3.94 punts per game in 2014, with only five of 18 contests resulting in five or more punts.  “Total punts by Jon Ryan” is currently listed at 4.5, with the Over posted at +120 and the Under listed at -140.

44. Seven or more Seattle players caught at least one pass in 14 of 18 games this season (77.7 percent). The “Total number of different Seahawks to have a pass reception” prop is currently listed at 7.0, with the Over posted at EVEN and the Under listed at -120.

45. The Seahawks have recorded a rushing touchdown in 27 of their last 37 games (72.9 percent).  The Patriots surrendered a rushing touchdown in just seven of 18 games this season (38.8 percent), but permitted a rushing touchdown in only two of their last nine outings. The “Will Seattle record a rushing touchdown” prop is currently listed at Yes -210, No +180.

46. Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright recorded seven or more tackles in 10 of 18 games this season (55.5 percent). However, Wright should play an integral role in defending highly-targeted New England tight end Rob Gronkowski on Sunday.  The Wright tackle prop is currently posted at 6.5 tackles (-110 both ways).

47. Seattle safety Kam Chancellor is currently listed at 40/1 to win the Super Bowl MVP award.  In last year’s Super Bowl, Chancellor posted a monster stat line with nine tackles, one interception and two pass deflections in a 43-8 blowout win over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.

48. The Patriots and Seahawks combined to throw 16 interceptions and lose 11 fumbles during the 2014 regular season.  A fumble is listed at +135 to be the first turnover of Sunday’s game, with an interception checking in at -155.

49. Brady has recorded a rushing attempt of four or more yards in just seven of his last 36 games (19.4 percent).  The “Longest rush by Tom Brady” prop is currently listed at 3.5 yards, with the Over posted at +140 and the Under listed at -160. 

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