Game of the Day: Auburn at Alabama

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Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-8.5, 53.5)

The Iron Bowl features one of the premier rivalries in college football, but in terms of pure drama, it will be nearly impossible to top last year’s finish. No. 1 Alabama hopes to exact a measure of revenge for last season’s devastating loss when it hosts No. 16 Auburn in the regular-season finale for both SEC powerhouses. The Crimson Tide’s hopes of a third straight national championship ended against the Tigers last season when Chris Davis returned a missed field goal 109 yards on the final play of the game, giving Auburn a stunning 34-28 win en route to a trip to the BCS title game.

This season, the Crimson Tide have rebounded in impressive fashion to take over No. 1 in the Coaches Poll and also the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. A seventh straight win on Saturday would send Alabama to the SEC title game against either Missouri or Georgia while a loss would likely end their national championship dreams. Auburn, meanwhile, watched its title hopes slip away with back-to-back losses to Texas A&M and Georgia followed by a lethargic win over Samford last weekend.

TV: 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN. 

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Alabama -9.5, but dropped a full point to -8.5 Tuesday night. The total of 53.5 has yet to move since open.

INJURY REPORT: Auburn – WR Ricardo Louis (Prob-Undisclosed), WR D’haquille Williams (Prob-Knee), DL Jeffrey Whitaker (Ques-Neck)  Alabama – RB T.J. Yeldon (Prob-Ankle), TE Brian Vogler (Doub-Knee), DL Anthony Orr (Ques-Undisclosed), WR DeAndrew White (Prob-Undisclosed), LB Reuben Foster (Prob-Undisclosed)

WEATHER FORECAST: Clouds are expected to be partly cloudy with minimum wind come game time. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 50’s.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: “Almost 60 percent of our handle is on the home squad, but most of the sharps are backing the dog so we’ve dropped the spread a half point since opening. The Tigers are out of contention so you have to handicap their motivation: Have they quit on the season or will they be fired up to oust their rival from the national title picture? They certainly started with their heads in the clouds last weekend. In my opinion, Auburn’s defense won’t be able to keep them in it.” – John Lester, Senior Lines Manager at Bookmaker.eu

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Hands down the most impactful revenge game this college football season as it was Auburn, rather than Alabama, who played in the SEC title and BCS championship games thanks to its last second-miracle 109-yard return of a miss field goal win over the Tide last season.  Must be careful, though, as the 3-loss Tigers are loose as a goose while the top-ranked Crimson have all the pressure squarely on their shoulders today. Besides, laying points into Gus Malzahn is never easy, as Alabama knows full well.” – Covers Expert Marc Lawrence

CHEERLEADER WAR:

ABOUT AUBURN (8-3, SU, 4-7 ATS, 6-5 O/U): The Tigers failed to reach 400 yards against Samford as Nick Marshall continued to put up underwhelming passing statistics. The senior quarterback passed for 171 yards and has not thrown for more than 254 yards in any game this season, while he only has one game of more than two TDs passes this year and has thrown five interceptions in his last six contests. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers’ defense recorded two sacks and hurried Samford’s quarterback a season-high 21 times, prompting Auburn coach Gus Malzahn to say, “The big factor was we put pressure on the quarterback. That was the key to our defensive performance.” 

ABOUT ALABAMA (10-1 SU, 3-8 ATS, 4-6 O/U): The Crimson Tide are second in the nation in points allowed (14.5) and fell right on that number in last week’s 48-14 triumph against Western Carolina as they outgained the Catamounts 612-213. Alabama knows it can rely on its defense, as well as senior quarterback Blake Sims (20 TDs, four INTs) and junior wideout Amari Cooper, who is tied with D.J. Hall (2004-07) with a school-record 194 receptions. “I think the Iron Bowl is one of the greatest rivalries in college football,” coach Nick Saban told reporters. “This game means a lot to a lot of people in this state, regardless of which side you’re on, and also around the country. As a competitor, it’s a great opportunity because this game has had a lot of significance over the past few years and it’s certainly no different last year or this year.”

TWEET BEAT:

TRENDS:

*Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Under is 5-0 in Crimson Tide last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
*Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Alabama.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 50.09 percent of Covers users are backing Alabama -8.5 with 57 percent on the over.

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