Hold out for prime points on Panthers – 10-28-2014

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Each week during the pro football season, Covers
Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and
tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and
which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers (+1.5) at Miami Dolphins

It’s time for the Chargers to fish or cut bait. They’ve had
the bye week to figure out things after division losses to
the Chiefs (close) and Broncos (not so close), and now they
need a win to stay relevant in the AFC West.

A San Diego win coupled with a Denver loss in New England
makes it a race again in the AFC West, but first the Chargers
need to take care of business in South Beach. The teams are
ranked pretty close in both offense and defense, but the
extra planning time and an advantage at quarterback gives the
Chargers an edge. San Diego already has two road covers and
should make it a third. This spread opened San Diego +2.5 and
has already gone down a point. If you’re feeling super
charged, now is the time to bet the Bolts.

Spread to wait on


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+2)

Early action is heavy on the Saints, with the public no doubt
reacting to New Orleans’ huge victory over the Packers
Sunday. And it’s likely to continue on the Saints through
midweek, which could melt the number down another half-point
and make the Panthers more attractive as we get close to
kickoff.

New Orleans is a different team on real grass and has yet to
win a game on the road – including losses at Atlanta and
Cleveland. To be 0-4 away from home and a favorite against a
decent team is a bit unusual, so it might be a good idea to
hang loose on this game for a bit.

Total to watch


Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (55)

The Patriots have had some success against Peyton Manning in
the past by disguising coverages, and last year in the
regular season New England just let Denver run the ball. Bill
Belichick would just love a taffy pull in this one, and when
the game is in Foxboro, Belichick usually gets what he wants.

It’s the biggest game of the year in the AFC (again) and the
league probably doesn’t want a flagfest. That might give New
England corners Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner license to
be physical. Under players will probably be cashing winning
tickets after this one.

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