It’s time to take the Aggies – 09-08-2014


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Each week during the college football season,
Expert Steve Merril
looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you
which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which
total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Utah State Aggies


Utah State is currently a 14-point home favorite over Wake
Forest, but I expect the line to rise throughout the
week.  Utah State took a ton of money in its season
opener at Tennessee, but they got crushed 38-7. The Aggies
bounced back nicely last week in their 40-20 win over FCS
Idaho State, and they should play even better in this game.

Wake Forest is a bad team. The Demon Deacons are void of
talent and they are in the process of learning new head coach
Dave Clawson’s system.  Wake Forest was awful in their
first game, a 17-10 home loss to UL-Monroe after gaining a
total of 94 yards of offense. They beat a terrible FCS
Gardner Webb 23-7 last week, but it’s back to reality in the
thin air and altitude at Utah State Saturday. This line will
close higher than two touchdowns, so lay -14 now.

Spread to wait on 

Central Florida Knights (+9.5) at Missouri

There was a flood of money against Missouri last week for
their game at Toledo. That money was dead wrong as the Tigers
rolled to an easy 49-24 win. Bettors don’t like to lose money
against a team two weeks in a row, so I don’t expect strong
anti-Missouri money this week.

The current line has Missouri -9.5 at home, so waiting for a
possible +10 to pop up is the correct betting strategy for
this game.  Central Florida lost its season opener
against Penn State in Ireland but the Knights had last week
off, so they’ll come with a strong effort in this game. Penn
State came back and won last week, so maybe UCF’s 26-24 loss
wasn’t so bad. Professional bettors will wait to hit this
game in hopes the public ticks the line up to double digits.

Total to

Nevada Wolf Pack at Arizona Wildcats

Nevada and Arizona both come into this game off poor
offensive outings. Nevada scored just 24 points in its home
win over Washington State while Arizona only scored 26 points
in its win at Texas-San Antonio. But those low-scoring
outputs should be attributed to the defenses they played.

This total is projected to open in the high 50s, according to
the early odds in Las Vegas. If the total comes out lower
than expected, there will be some value on the Over. Arizona
has scored 35 points or more in five of its last seven home
games, while Nevada allowed 47.3 points per game on the road
last season.


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