The Duke Blue Devils and the Michigan State Spartans are both 4-0 ATS through their first four games of the 2015 NCAA Tournament, but someone will lose that zero in the ATS loss column on Saturday night as the teams meet in the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
And as we take a look at the Final Four betting trends we find that Michigan State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games, and 5-3-1 ATS in its last nine games against Duke. The UNDER has gone 8-0 in Duke’s last eight games as a favorite; they’re 5-point chalk against Michigan State.
In the other Final Four contest, the Kentucky Wildcats are 38-0 SU in their last 38 games, and 23-3 SU in their last 26 games as a favorite at the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats, though, are just 1-3 ATS so far this March Madness. The Wisconsin Badgers, who are 5-point underdogs against the Wildcats, are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.
Here are some betting trends for the Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils and Wisconsin Badgers vs. Kentucky Wildcats matchups for the Final Four in Indianapolis this weekend . . .
Michigan State vs. Duke
Michigan State 8-1 SU last 9 games
Michigan State 3-13 SU last 16 games as underdog
Michigan State 11-4 ATS last 15 games (4-0 ATS during tournament)
Michigan State 5-3 SU & ATS last 8 games as underdog in tournament
Michigan State 5-3-1 ATS last 9 meetings
Michigan State 13-9 SU as lower-seeded team in tournament
Michigan State 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 Final Four games including championship
Duke 19-2 SU last 21 games (both losses to Notre Dame)
Duke 14-1 SU last 15 games as favorite
Duke 8-1 SU last 9 meetings with Michigan State
Duke 7-1 ATS last 8 games as favorite
Duke 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS last 8 games as favorite in tournament
Duke 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 Final Four games including championship
Duke 8-2 ATS last 10 games (4-0 ATS during tournament)
OVER 8-2 in Michgan State’s last 10 games as underdog
OVER 8-3 in Michigan State’s last 11 games
OVER 5-1 in last 6 meetings
UNDER 8-0 in Duke’s last 8 games as favorite
UNDER 8-1 in Duke’s last 9 games (6-0 L6)
UNDER 6-1 in Duke’s last 7 games as favorite in tournament (4-0 L4)
Wisconsin vs. Kentucky
Wisconsin 20-1 SU last 21 games (10-10-1 ATS)
Wisconsin 4-0-1 ATS last 5 games as underdog in tournament
Wisconsin 7-3 SU & 7-2-1 ATS last 10 games as underdog
Wisconsin 6-3 ATS last 9 games
Wisconsin 0-2 SU last 2 Final Four games since winning championship in 1941
Kentucky 38-0 SU last 38 games
Kentucky 23-3 SU last 26 games as favorite in tournament
Kentucky 8-2 SU last 10 Final Four games including championship (3-5-2 ATS)
Kentucky 1-4 ATS last 5 games as favorite in tournament
Kentucky 1-3 ATS during tournament (8-1-1 ATS previous 10)
OVER 4-1 in Wisconsin’s last 5 games
OVER 4-1 in Wisconsin’s last 5 games as underdog
UNDER 7-3 in Kentucky’s last 10 games as favorite in tournament
UNDER 6-2 in Kentucky’s last 8 games as favorite
UNDER 3-1 in Kentucky’s last 4 Final Four games including championship
Bigger isn’t always better than smaller, but higher is almost always better than lower when it comes to betting on the Final Four and that trend continued at the 2013 NCAA Tournament.
In 14 games since 2005 (excluding games where both teams had the same seed), the higher-ranked teams are 13-1 SU. At the betting window they were almost as dominant, riding a 11-2-1 ATS mark in that NCAA Tournament odds action.
Last year, the Final Four saw Louisville favored twice against lower seeds, failing to cover against Wichita State but covering a 4-point spread against Michigan in the national final. The other game pitted Michigan vs Syracuse, both 4 seeds.
“The bracket is full of upsets and underdogs and Cinderella wannabes, but when it comes down to crunch time in the later rounds, the higher seeds take care of business,” said Mark Presley, the main basketball handicapper at OddsShark.com. “Everybody loves an underdog, but history shows that Final Four underdogs don’t love them back.”
The national championship game has witnessed a similar trend in the past decade, although not as pronounced. In the final game, the higher-seeded team is 8-2 SU and ATS. Favorites are on a 7-2-1 ATS run in the past 10 title games. Two years ago, Kentucky beat Kansas, but the game was a push on the closing lines at 67-59 on a 6-point number.
Three of the last four national title games all went under the total, in part because defensive-minded mid-major Butler defied the odds to play in two of those games. The latter game was a 53-41 snoozer that plunged UNDER the total by nearly 40 points. A year ago, Louisville and Michigan soared OVER the number.
In fact, betting UNDER in the Final Four has been a very profitable way to wager on March Madness totals. Since 2005, the UNDER has prevailed at an 11-5-1 clip in 17 games.