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With the average total opening at 142.3 points – an increase from the average Over/Under line of 141.4 points from last year – NCAA tournament games produced a count of 23-9 O/U Thursday and Friday, playing Over the betting total almost 72 percent of the time.
“We’ve had a rash of Overs, people betting the Overs,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill U.S. in Nevada, tells Covers. “That’s probably the biggest culprit for us.”
Thursday’s games saw an average of 147.69 points score while Friday’s action jumped to 153.75 points per tournament tilt. Looking back at the past two NCAA Round of 64 schedules, the Over is a combined 43-21 – a 67 percent winner for Over backers.
Heading into Saturday’s Round of 32 games, books opened with an average total of 139 points for the eight second round contests. Five of those games have seen money on the Over push the number up, while two have drawn Under action and one total has remained steady, as of Saturday morning.
Last year, following an Over-friendly first round, the Round of 32 games closed with an average total of 141.47 points. Those 16 NCAA contests produced an average of 142.5 points per game but still posted a collective 6-10 Over/Under record – a 62.5 percent winning rate for the Under.
Going back to 2007, the Round of 32 has seen an average of 137.5 points per game score versus an average closing total of 136.5, giving way to a 62-66-2 Over/Under mark over the past 10 NCAA tournaments.