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Heading into Friday’s series opener with the New York Yankees, Minnesota has topped the total in 11 of its last dozen outings and is an incredible 17-3-1 Over/Under this month. If you blindly bet the Over in Minnesota games in June, you’d roughly be up +12.0 units depending on the juice.
That pace has the Twinkies in the same conversation as the 2012 Philadelphia Phillies and 2003 Boston Red Sox as the top Over bets through the first three months of the season since 1999, with those clubs boasting respective 50-28-2 O/U (64% Overs) and 54-23-3 O/U (70% Overs) counts from April to June.
Minnesota enters the weekend averaging 9.68 totals runs (4.041 for/5.639 against) versus an average closing total of 8.375 from oddsmakers. The biggest factor playing into this trend is just how horrific Minnesota’s pitching staff has been. The Twins are ranked 29th in total team ERA (5.30) and WHIP (1.48) while allowing opposing batters to hit .292 BA and serving up more taters (104 home runs allowed) than any other team in the American League.
Those numbers have ballooned to an embarrassing 6.00 ERA in June, giving up an average of 6.52 runs per game this month, including a total of 22 runs in the previous three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies – the worst offensive club in all of baseball. To put that into perspective, the Phillies needed nine games to score a total of 23 runs before meeting Minnesota.
Adding gas to the Over fire has been a subtle uptick in offense from Minnesota. On the year, the Twins are hitting .247 BA and, as mentioned above, plating just over four runs a contest. But in June, their bats have warmed up with the summer heat, currently boasting a .266 BA (10th best in the bigs) and scoring 4.76 runs per game. Against Philadelphia this week, Minny countered those 22 runs against with 23 runs of its own, leading to three easy Overs for totals bettors.
So, what comes next for the total-topping Twins? Minnesota is on the road for the next six games, playing the aforementioned Yankees three times and then visiting the rival Chicago White Sox for a trio of games. The Twins are 17-12-3 Over/Under on the road (just 59 percent), compared to 28-11-1 Over/Under inside Target Field.
As of Friday’s Game 1 in the Bronx, the Twins and Yankees have posted a 20-8-2 Over/Under record in their last 30 head-to-head meetings. The total for the series opener opened at 8.5 and is down to 8 as of Friday afternoon.