MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Sleeper in the AL East

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for the week-end major-league schedule:

Home Sweet Home

The Washington Nationals return home to host the Brewers in a three game series starting Friday, coming off a brutal road trip losing six of nine. Despite the fact that they’ve lost 12 of 18 games in August, the Nats are still only 3.5 games back of the Mets for first place in the AL East.

The Brewers have lost seven of their last eight on the road, and Game 1 appears to be a particularly tough spot for Milwaukee. Gio Gonzalez will go for the Nats, and he’s won four straight versus the Brewers, and he’s 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA at home in 2015.

Sleeper In The AL East

While the Blue Jays and Yankees are getting all the headlines in the AL East, the Orioles are only five games back. Baltimore has won 10 of its last 14 home games and it will host the Minnesota Twins this weekend.

The Twins took the opener in a blowout by a score of 15-2, but they had lost nine of their previous 10 on the road, and they are a pathetic 22-37 away from home this season. Baltimore could make up some ground over the weekend.

Here Come The Tigers

On Monday I mentioned that Miguel Cabrera was back for Detroit, and that they would likely be getting great value as an underdog in Chicago. Well they’ve since won three straight, including back to back games at Wrigley as a 2-1 dog.

Cabrera is hitting .400 in six games since coming off the DL, and Detroit is a far better team with the slugger in the lineup. They host the Rangers over the weekend, and we could see fireworks in the Motor City as six of the last eight in this series have gone over the total.

The Tigers don’t play many low scoring games, as they’ve gone over the number at a rate of 36-16-3 in their last 55 overall.

WAG of the Day

Taijuan walker’s girlfriend Heather Restrepo

Hitting Notes

* Travis Shaw is hardly a household name, but the rookie first baseman is making the most of his opportunities in Boston. He’s played 15 games so far in August, batting .420, with six home runs and 11 RBIs.

* The Detroit Tigers are batting a major league best .284 versus left-handed pitching, and they will face southpaw Cole Hamels on Sunday. Miguel Cabrera is 6-for-8 lifetime versus Hamels.

Pitching Notes

* Gerrit Cole has been stuck on 14 wins since July, and that has allowed Jake Arrieta to take over the major league lead with his 15th win on Thursday night at Wrigley. Cole will get a chance to draw level as he starts at home against the Giants this Saturday. Cole is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA versus the Giants this year, and he’s won all three of his career starts against San Francisco.

* Luis Severino is still in search of his first win, despite the fact that the Yankees rookie right-hander has pitched quite well in his first three starts. He gave up three runs on five hits, but struck out nine over six innings in a 3-1 loss to Toronto his last time out. His next start comes on Saturday at home versus Cleveland, and he did look good striking out seven in five innings in a loss to the Red Sox in his only prior start in the Bronx.

Totals Steak

* The Milwaukee Brewers are trending under on the road, only managing to go over the total once in their last nine away from Miller Park. They are in Washington this weekend, and the Nats have been really struggling to score runs. Washington is batting a major league worst .226 since the All Star break. We could see a low scoring series here in the nation’s Capital.

Injury Notes

*The injury bug has really hit the St. Louis Cardinals, with Randal Grichuk and Jason Heyward both joining Matt Holliday on the DL this week. That’s going to leave the Cardinals with a pretty thin lineup as they visit San Diego over the weekend.

*Yasiel Puig suffered a hamstring injury on August 18, and his availability is questionable heading into this weekend’s series at Houston.

Umpire Notes

* The Minnesota Twins are 0-5 in their last five games with Eric Cooper behind home plate. That’s where he’ll be when the Twins visit the Baltimore Orioles Friday.

* Over wagers have gone 6-0 in the last six Saturday games that Pat Hoberg has worked the dish. He’ll be calling balls and strikes in Miami when the Phillies visit the Marlins Saturday.

Weather Notes

* There is a 66 percent chance of thunderstorms in Boston as the Red Sox host the Kansas City Royals Friday evening.

* Forecasts are projecting winds will be blowing from rightfield to leftfied at around 13 mph when at Wrigley Field when the Chicago Cubs host the Atlanta Braves Saturday afternoon.

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