NBA betting history says the Raptors will rebound from big loss

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Cheer up Toronto Raptors bettors.

Yes, Wednesday’s 116-78 blowout loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals stung (Cleveland covered the 11-point spread by 27 points) but there are brighter skies ahead – at least so says NBA Playoffs betting history. 

Going back to the 1990-91 NBA season, playoff teams coming off a loss of 30 or more points are a profitable 36-20 ATS (26-30 SU) in their following postseason game, covering the spread 64 percent of the time. And looking closer at teams fresh from an ass-waxing of 38 points-plus (like Toronto is in Game 6), those clubs have rebounded with a 9-3 ATS mark (5-7 SU), a 75 percent winner at the window.

The Raptors are 6-point underdogs at home to LeBron James and the Cavaliers Friday. Toronto was trucked in Games 1 and 2 of the series in Cleveland, but returned serve with two wins as a home pup in Games 3 and 4. The Dinos are 5-5 ATS at the Air Canda Centre this postseason.

Home cooking has helped teams bounce back from a bad loss during that 25-year span. Since the 1991 NBA Playoffs, home teams reeling from a 30-plus point loss the game before are 17-7 ATS (14-10 SU), which is a 71 percent payday.  

Those teams off a crushing loss have scored an average of 96.33 points for while allowing an average of 98.03 points against, versus an average spread of +6.67. Home sides in this situation have a positive points for/against count of 100.04-97.16 with an average pointspread of +5.4. 

This trend is, however, reserved to the playoffs. Looking into that same situation during the regular season returns a record of 301-600 ATS (342-559 SU), with teams off a 30-plus beatdown covering just 33 percent of the time in the following game. Basic logic tells us that playoff clubs are much more talented than team losing big in the regular season, with an ability to shake off those one-sided defeats and return to form.

This postseason trend has also paid well for Under bettors. Playoff teams coming off a loss of 30 or more points have gone 23-33 Over/Under in the following contest, staying below the total at a 59 percent clip.

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