As if the New England Patriots needed more problems after getting lashed by the Chiefs on Monday, they play a rested Cincinnati team in Week 5.
But while the Pats are on a short week and facing a 3-0 Bengals team that is coming off a bye week and has extra rest on its side, history says the rested team is not a lock to win.
It’s an interesting scenario and handicappers may jump to the conclusion that the rested team enjoying two weeks of healing and practice should handle the team coming off a Monday Nighter with just six days to get ready. But look before you leap.
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This exact scenario happened three times in 2013, with a road team coming off its bye week playing a home team on a short week (having played on Monday Night Football). All three times, the rested road team won and covered. Sounds good so far for the Bengals to remain perfect and for the Patriots’ woes to continue.
But before last season, this situation was almost a lock to bet the team on short rest. The Steelers beat the Jets in Week 6, the Titans beat the Rams in Week 9, and the Lions beat the Bears in Week 10 in this exact situation that the Bengals find themselves in this week.
2013 games, rested teams 3-0 SU and ATS
But will that trend continue or will the ghost of short-rest teams past re-appear to hand Patriots bettors a payout at the sportsbook? Between 2003 and 2012, this situation of the schedule makers giving a short-rest team a game against a bye-week team happened 16 times.
The rested team covered the spread only twice! According to the Odds – VSB
NFL database, the mark is 2-13-1 ATS. It means the supposedly fatigued team was able to rebound quickly and defeat the rested opponents. The games are listed below.
And if you wondered about the Patriots as home underdogs, it doesn’t happen very often. In nine games as home dogs since Sept. 2001, the Pats roared to a 7-2 SU mark and 8-1 ATS record. Clearly they respond well to being called home underdogs.
2003-2012 games, rested teams 2-8-1 ATS when they were on the road:
2003-2012 games where rested team was at home, rested teams were 0-5 ATS.