Five of the six NFL conference title games over the past three seasons have turned out to be UNDER results for totals bettors at the sportsbooks as we take a look at this weekend’s betting trends for the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game.
In the AFC the Colts will play on the road against the Patriots for the conference title on Sunday, with Indianapolis having gone 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against AFC East teams. Indianapolis is also 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS in its last five games against New England, and 3-8 both SU and ATS in its last 11 road playoff games.
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The Patriots, favorites for Sunday, are 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites dating back to 2008, and 0-5 ATS in the AFC Championship Game since 2005. New England, however, is 17-1 SU and 12-6 ATS in its last 18 home games, and 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games against teams from the AFC South.
The home team has won and covered in the four prior playoff meetings between the Colts and the Patriots, while the OVER has gone 6-0 in the last six games between Indianapolis and New England for totals bettors.
Over in the NFC the Seahawks will host the Packers on Sunday as they battle for a berth in the Super Bowl, with Green Bay just 1-8 both SU and ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog heading into the matchup against the favored Seahawks. Green Bay is also just 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996.
The Seahawks have won eight straight playoff games as favorites on the NFL odds, going 5-2-1 ATS in that span. Seattle also enters Sunday’s matchup on a run of 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games, and they’re 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games at CenturyLink Field. The OVER is 6-3 in the last nine games between the two teams.
Conference Championships NFL Betting Trends
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
Packers and Seahawks have met twice in playoffs, home team won both times (2004, 2008)
Packers 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996
Packers 1-8 SU & ATS last 9 games as road underdogs
Packers 1-5 SU & ATS last 6 road games vs. NFC West
Packers 1-3 ATS last 4 road games (2-2 SU)
Packers 6-3 SU last 9 meetings with Seahawks (4-3-2 ATS)
Seahawks have won eight straight as playoff favorites, 5-2-1 ATS
Seahawks 7-0 SU last 7 games (6-0-1 ATS)
Seahawks 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 home games vs. NFC North
Seahawks 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 playoff games
Seahawks 23-7 ATS last 30 home games (27-3 SU)
OVER 6-3 in last 9 meetings
OVER 4-0 in Green Bay’s last 4 road games vs. NFC West
OVER 8-3 in Green Bay’s last 11 games as road underdog
UNDER 3-0 in Green Bay’s last 3 road games
UNDER 3-1 in Seattle’s last 4 home games
OVER 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 home games vs. NFC North
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Home team has won and covered four prior playoff meetings of Colts and Pats
Colts 0-6 SU last 6 road games vs. AFC East (2-4 ATS)
Colts 0-5 SU last 5 meetings with Patriots (2-3 ATS)
Colts 3-8 SU & ATS last 11 road playoff games
Colts 3-7 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS)
Patriots 0-5 ATS in conference championship round since 2005 (2-3 SU)
Patriots 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008
Patriots 10-0 SU last 10 home games vs. AFC South (7-3 ATS)
Patriots 17-1 SU last 18 home games (12-6 ATS)
Patriots 4-10 ATS last 14 playoff games (7-7 SU)
UNDER 10-3 in Indy’s last 13 road playoff games (6-1 L7)
OVER 6-0 in last 6 meetings
OVER 9-1 in Indy’s last 10 road games vs. AFC East (7-0 L7)
OVER 6-0 in New England’s last 6 home games vs. AFC South
OVER 11-3 in New England’s last 14 home games
After the first two weeks of the NFL playoffs leading up to Super Bowl XLVIII road teams are 4-4 SU and 5-2-1 ATS, while underdogs are 5-2-1 ATS, with three winning outright. Over the past four seasons in the conference championships, road teams are 6-2 ATS while underdogs are 4-4 ATS.
According to the lines at 5Dimes for Sunday’s conference championships, the AFC’s top-seeded Denver Broncos are -4.5 to second-seeded New England, down from the opening line of 6.5. In the NFC, top-seed Seattle is -3.5 to division-rival and defending conference champion San Francisco.
Looking at these games in-depth, beginning with the AFC Championship Game and the highly-anticipated showdown between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in Denver . . .
New England has won and covered five of its last six in this series, but the Patriots are mired in a 2-7 road ATS skid and a 3-9 spread slide in the playoffs. New England is also in on ATS win streaks of 7-2 as an underdog and a perfect 8-0 against AFC West teams. And though Denver is in on an 8-3 ATS win streak overall, it’s also failed to cover seven of its last nine in the playoffs, and has lost five straight on the field and at the window against AFC East teams.
For totals lovers, the Broncos have stayed UNDER in four straight games, but the OVER has cashed in the last four times these two have played. The number is 55
In the NFC Championship Game, make note the Seahawks have covered eight of their last 10 when hosting the 49ers. The Seahawks have also covered six in a row when hosting a playoff game, and have won 21 of their last 24 SU when installed as the favorite. San Francisco has won three straight playoff games on the highway, and is in on winning streaks of 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS against NFC West foes.
In regards to the total, which is 39, the Seahawks have stayed UNDER the last five times they were favored, while the UNDER has cashed in six of the last seven times they’ve played intradivision foes.
San Francisco +3.5 at Seattle, total 39.5
Niners have won three straight playoff road games
Seahawks won six straight playoff home games
Seahawks have played five straight UNDERs when favored
Seahawks are 21-3 SU past 24 games as favorites
UNDER is 6-1 past seven Seahawks games vs. NFC West foes
49ers won five straight vs. NFC West foes (4-1 ATS)
Seattle is 8-2 ATS past 10 at home to San Francisco
New England +4.5 at Denver, total 55
Home team has won and covered three playoff meetings of these teams
Past four meetings played OVER the total
Patriots are 5-1 SU and ATS past six vs Broncos
Patriots are 2-7 ATS past nine road games
Patriots are 7-2 ATS past nine games as underdogs
Broncos have played four straight UNDERs
Denver is 8-3 ATS past 11 games overall
Broncos are 2-7 ATS past nine playoff games
Patriots are 3-9 ATS past 12 playoff games
Patriots won and covered eight straight vs AFC West teams
Broncos on 0-5 SU and ATS run vs AFC East teams