NFL line watch: Wait until closer to kickoff before backing Bills

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US PRESSWIRE

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports
looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one
to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.


Spread to bet now

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at New York Giants

Die hard football Giants fans are dreaming of yet another November-December run to the playoffs. They look at a schedule that after this game includes four straight against teams with losing records and wonder if Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have any magic beans left in their pockets. That’s unlikely, and the Cowboys will probably deliver the wooden stake in the Giants’ hearts this Sunday in East Rutherford. The ‘Boys, who are the only undefeated (4-0) team on the road this season, opened at -3 and the public has been jumping on them in early betting. It’s doubtful that the sharps will come in late on this one even if the number moves to 3.5. Dallas needs this one to keep pace with Philadelphia in the NFC East.
 
Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5)

The Jets are long gone and out of things, but they haven’t packed it in as evidenced by their unlikely win over the white-hot Steelers a week ago. New York forced four turnovers in that game, and has had a week off to get ready for the 5-5 Bills. The extra half-point in this one makes it a hard swallow for backers on the Bills. Buffalo crushed the Jets in late October, but the Bills haven’t won since then, losing twice (KC, Miami) in five days. It’s in the Jets’ interest to turn this one into a taffy pull, so the fraction of a point could be very important. Hang on to see if the number changes before pulling the trigger.
 
Total to watch

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (50)

Think Peyton Manning will want to fire the ball all over Mile High after being on the road for the last month, getting stuffed by a mediocre St. Louis team and taking two losses in the last three games? And if all that’s not bad enough, say hello to the Chiefs, who have tied the Broncos in the AFC West at 7-3 and get Denver at home on Nov. 30. Denver’s defense has been exposed over the last three weeks, and the Dolphins themselves aren’t half bad when they have the ball. Looks like a lot of points on the way here as the last thing Denver wants to do is grind it out and give Miami a chance to make it a fourth quarter game.

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