NFL Line Watch: Window closing on Chiefs’ Thursday night spread


USA TODAY Sports

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later and and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

It wasn’t exactly Willie Mays falling down in the outfield during his final season, but Bronco bettors have to be a little concerned about what they saw out of Peyton Manning in the opener – 24 for 40, no TDs, 1 INT. At home.

Eerily similar to the numbers PM put up in Denver’s playoff loss to the Colts last season. And now Manning is getting only a few days of rest before a road game against the pumped-up Chiefs.

Does KC actually have a QB advantage in this one? This one opened at KC -2.5 and is now at 3. If you like K.C., it might be a good idea to jump now before oddsmakers pile on another half-point.

 
Spread to wait on

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7)

Repeat after me: Week 1 is only one week.

The Jets looked dominant against a crummy Browns team, and the Colts drew the tough assignment of playing in Buffalo last Sunday. This same game played just about at any point last season would carry a line in the vicinity of 13-14 points. Two factors are keeping this spread as tight as it is – the way each team played last week, and NY money on the Jets.

Suggestion here is to hang tight and wait to see if heavier money either way moves the line either way just before kickoff.

 
Total to watch

Houston Texans at Carolina Panthers (40.5)

Bill O’Brien has the unenviable task of trying to win NFL games without a top-level quarterback, and even with a good defense that’s like spending all week pushing a boulder up a hill only to see it come crashing down in 15 minutes on Sunday afternoon.

Now O’Brien says he won’t even reveal which former Patriot backup (Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallet) will start in Carolina.

Until Houston can get its offense untracked, Texan bettors can expect to see low totals all season – even against a weak schedule and in a soft AFC South.

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