There is no such thing as a ‘lock’ or a ‘sure bet,’ despite what your neighborhood handicapper might tell you.
But when it comes to NFL preseason betting, one wager has been almost a guarantee the past nine preseasons – betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to lose against the spread.
In their past 38 games, the Chiefs are a jaw-dropping (and bankroll-bleeding) 7-30-1 ATS. After losing their first two games last August to slip to 5-30-1 ATS, they had two disappointing victories to raise their record.
“You don’t understand how that type of trend can happen, because it extends back to the years when the Chiefs were Super Bowl contenders, through their low seasons, and now that they are rebuilding,” said Mike Pickett.
“But those are the numbers – right there in black and white.”
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In 2014, the preseason kicks off with the Hall of Fame Game between the Bills and Giants. Buffalo is just 3-10 SU in 13 recent exhibition games, mirroring their futility in the regular season in recent years.
Archived content from August 2013
They got a break to open last season, facing the Cardinals in their first game. This is not to say Arizona was a bad team, but they played in the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday and then turned around and play again on Thursday – a tough challenge. Predictably, the Cardinals lost and the Chiefs had a rare victory.
No such luck this season as the Hall of Fame Game pits Miami against Dallas. But 2013 sees plenty of one-sided trends that could be predictors this season.
For example, the Steelers and Titans have been machines at home in the preseason (Pittsburgh winning 11 straight since 2007 and Tennessee winning 12 straight). Carolina has lost 10 of 11 preseason road games (3-8 ATS) and the aforementioned Cardinals are riding a 1-7 ATS streak over two preseasons.
Among the teams that recently have been moneymakers for NFL preseason bettors are the Lions (9-2 ATS), Colts (5-1 ATS), Eagles (5-1 ATS), Saints (9-3 ATS), Seahawks (8-1 ATS) and Rams (11-3 ATS).
What other NFL wagering angles have produced results in recent years? Are there other reasons to bet the NFL preseason? Check out the list below.
Preseason NFL Trends 2013
Cardinals 1-7 ATS past 8 preseason games
Bills 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS past 9 preseason games
Carolina 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS past 11 preseason road games
Bengals 1-6 ATS past 7 preseason road games
Broncos 1-5 ATS past 6 preseason games as favorite
Lions 9-2 SU & ATS past 11 preseason games
Packers 17-4 SU past 21 preseason games
Colts 5-1 ATS past 6 preseason games
Colts OVER is 6-1 past 7 preseason road games
Jaguars played 6 straight preseason OVERs
Chiefs 5-28-1 ATS past 34 preseason games
Dolphins were 0-4 SU & ATS last preseason
Giants UNDER is 8-2 past 10 preseason games
Jets 0-5 SU & ATS past 5 preseason games
Patriots 1-5 SU, 0-6 ATS past 6 preseason games
Saints 9-3 ATS past 12 preseason games
Raiders 2-8 SU & ATS past 10 preseason games
Eagles 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS past 6 preseason games
Steelers 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS past 7 preseason games
Steelers won 11 straight preseason home games since Aug. 11, 2007
Seahawks 8-1 ATS past 9 preseason games
Rams 11-3 SU & ATS past 14 preseason games
Bucs 9-2 ATS past 11 preseason road games
Titans won 12 straight preseason home games since Aug. 11 2007