Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks): 219.5
I’m going with the Under as I had this number pegged in the 200 to 210 range.
While the Patriots will undoubtedly dare the Seahawks to beat them on the strength of Wilson’s arm, I’m not convinced that Seattle will stray away from its preferred game plan. That means a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch, and plenty of creative scramble plays from Wilson. Don’t count on Wilson airing it out early and often, even if he does have a still-underrated receiving corps at his disposal.
That’s not to say Wilson won’t have an efficient game. I’m just not sure he has enough pass attempts to get over this yardage total, with the Pats limiting the number of “splash” plays through the air.
LeGarrette Blount (New England Patriots): 64.5
While LeGarrette Blount has re-emerged as a significant contributor in the Patriots offense, don’t expect him to go off against the Seahawks the way he did at the expense of the Colts two weeks ago.
The Seahawks defense will be focused on putting pressure on Tom Brady, but they won’t do so at the expense of shutting down New England’s running game. I’m confident we’ll see the Seahawks camp out in the Pats backfield for much of the game. Blount will break off a couple of 10-yard runs, but little more in my opinion. He tops out in the 50s, giving us plenty of room to work with as this yardage total sits in the mid-60s.
Julian Edelman (New England Patriots): 6.5
This might be the best value bet on the board in terms of player props.
Most consider Rob Gronkowski to be the biggest gamebreaker in the Patriots passing game, but Julian Edelman gives him a run for his money. We’ve seen Edelman take on an even greater role than usual in these playoffs, and with an extra week to prepare for a dominant Seahawks defense, I expect to see a big performance from the Pats’ most versatile receiver Sunday.
Note that Edelman has caught 17 passes in two playoff games. In fact, he’s hauled in at least seven catches in each of his last six games played (he missed the final two games of the regular season).