NFL Week 1 Opening Odds Analysis

Once the NFL released its 2015 schedule back in April some betting shops wasted no time posting lines and taking action. This generated publicity and an extra four months worth of business for them.

It also resulted in those bookmakers having to deal with steam on Green Bay-Chicago, the Baltimore-Denver total, and a favorite change in Minnesota-San Francisco. And those books have been ensnared in the nightmare of Deflategate as well.

Patriots Odds Surge With Brady Back

Bookmakers putting out early lines on Pittsburgh-New England went on the assumption Tom Brady would miss the game due to suspension. So they opened the Patriots as just 2.5-point favorites.

We now know Brady’s line value compared to backup Jimmy Garoppolo: 4.5 points. Those taking an early lead on the Patriots in hopes of Brady’s suspension being overturned got lucky. Many envisioned a best-case appeal scenario of Brady being suspended one game instead of four.

Don’t be surprised if the line rises higher from the Patriots currently being favored by 7 points. The Steelers have to be taken aback by the court reversing Roger Goodell’s decision. Pittsburgh also is dealing with its own suspensions to star running back Le’Veon Bell and wide receiver Martavis Bryant.

The Patriots hosted the Steelers two years ago when the teams last met, blasting them 55-31. Brady threw for 432 yards and four touchdowns. It was the most points the Steelers have allowed in their 81-year history – and the Steelers defense is more inexperienced and looks worse than it did in 2013.

Packers Line and Broncos Total move

The Packers have gone from 3.5-point favorites to 7-point favorites against the Bears. Green Bay’s loss of Jordy Nelson takes a backseat to how bad the Bears defense is perceived plus Chicago’s wide receiver cluster injury problem.

Concerns about Peyton Manning’s arm strength and a dominant preseason showing from the Broncos’ first-string defense have reduced the Ravens-Broncos total from 53 to 49.

As well, the oddsmakers got it wrong opening the 49ers as 4.5-point favorites against the now 2.5-point favored Vikings. The Vikings are on the upswing while the 49ers are headed downward rocked by a number of surprising retirements and Aldon Smith being booted off the team.

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