NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Analysis

This Week 11 in the NFL is shaping up to be very weird.

There is the strong possibility of quarterback changes in Dallas, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Denver and Houston due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The Cowboys have lost seven in a row going 1-6 against the spread (ATS) during this span. Yet some books have the Cowboys favored on the road against Miami because Tony Romo is slated to return. Romo has been out since Week 2 because of a broken collarbone.

Other quarterback changes, though, really don’t impact the line such as Brock Osweiler replacing Peyton Manning and Case Keenum taking over for Nick Foles. The Broncos opened less than a field goal favorite at Chicago with Manning and the number hasn’t changed with news of Osweiler taking over.

Baltimore is either minus 1.5 or two hosting St. Louis where Keenum has replaced Foles.

Jaguars are Rare Favorite Against Tennessee

It’s not just an influx of quarterback changes making Week 11 stand out.

Jacksonville is a three-point home favorite to Tennessee for Thursday’s game. It is only the third time in their last 52 games the Jaguars aren’t underdogs.

Oakland is a rare road favorite laying 1.5 at Detroit. It’s just the third time since 2012 the Raiders have been road chalk. The last time was in Week 4 when the Raiders lost 22-20 as three-point favorites against the Bears at Solider Field.

The Raiders halted an 11-game road losing skid in beating Cleveland 27-20 during their first road game of the season. Oakland is 3-1 ATS away from home this season.

Chiefs Favored on the Road Against Chargers

Kansas City is a three-point road favorite against staggering San Diego, which comes out of its bye with five straight losses and a 1-7 mark in its last eight games, 2-6 ATS. This game has mercifully been flexed out of its original Sunday night spot.

Just two years ago, the Chiefs were whopping 15.5-point ‘dogs at San Diego. You have to go back to 2004 to find the last time Kansas City was a road favorite against the Chargers. The Chiefs are on a three-game winning and covering streak beating Pittsburgh, Detroit and Denver.


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