NFL Week 2 Opening Odds Analysis

One game. That’s all it took for the oddsmaker to realize the Denver Broncos are going to be an under the total team this season. That hasn’t been the case since Peyton Manning came on board in 2012.

During the two previous seasons, the Broncos had a total of 50 or higher in 21 of their 38 games. The lowest Denver over/under had been 47 during this span – until now.

The total in Thursday night’s Denver-Kansas City Chiefs matchup is 42. The last time the Broncos had an over/under lined this low was in 2011 when Tim Tebow was their quarterback.

The linesmaker made a Week 1 mistake opening the Baltimore Ravens-Broncos total in the 50 range. The books paid for it when the total closed 46.5. There were only 32 points scored in a 19-13 Denver victory. Neither offense produced a touchdown.

Sharp Bettors Were on the UNDER

Sharp bettors were on the under. But they were not entirely satisfied with the outcome. Being a wise guy in sports betting is like hustling pool. You want to win, but not by so much that the other guy is embarrassed and won’t play again.

That Broncos game spooked the oddsmaker giving him a clear sign of what pro bettors already knew: Denver has a dominant defense and a run-oriented, short pass offensive philosophy under new coach Gary Kubiak. This is a direct offensive design to compensate for Manning’s diminished physical skills, which are becoming more obvious.

Heavy Public Money on green bay?

If you like the Green Bay Packers in their Revenge Game of the Century against Seattle on Sunday night at Lambeau Field better rush to get your play in now while the line still hangs three at some books. You’ll pay higher juice, but by kickoff it wouldn’t surprise if the spread has risen to four.

It’s not difficult anticipating heavy public money on the Packers, who outplayed the Seahawks for 55 minutes in Seattle until losing in overtime in last season’s NFC title game. Green Bay blew a 16-point lead in a game where Mike McCarthy did a Ted Cruz impersonation with his ultra conservative coaching.

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