Going with two favorites and a total for the NFL Week 9 card. Let’s begin with the totals play, which is under 45 on the Atlanta-San Francisco game.
The 49ers have played much stronger defense at Levi’s Stadium giving up an average of only 15 points per game. That would rank No. 1 in the NFL if that number included all of San Francisco’s games.
Matt Ryan is having a mediocre season. He has accounted for just two more touchdowns than turnovers. The Falcons, a dome team, are going to be slowed down playing on San Francisco’s slippery, slow grass surface.
Dan Quinn has greatly improved Atlanta’s defense. The 49ers have a cluster injury problem at running back – down to their fourth-stringer – and Blaine Gabbert will be the starting quarterback. Gabbert has shown nothing during his NFL career – and that’s putting it kindly. He’s worse than Colin Kaepernick because he’s not mobile.
GIANTS OFFENSE WILL LEAD THEM TO A COVER
The two favorites I like are the New York Giants minus 2 1/2 at Tampa Bay and New England minus 14 hosting Washington.
The Giants have their offense in top gear. Eli Manning is fourth in touchdown passes. Tampa Bay is 28th in defensive scoring giving up 28.4 points per game.
The Buccaneers have proven time after time they can’t win at home losing 11 of their last 12 at Raymond James Stadium going 3-9 against the spread (ATS).
Under Lovie Smith, the Buccaneers are 2-9 in games decided by six points or less.
TAKE PATRIOTS DESPITE DOUBLE-DIGIT SPREAD
Some NFL bettors will tell you never to lay double-digits. I disagree. I see the Patriots burying the Redskins.
Washington has multiple injuries. Kirk Cousins can’t keep up with Tom Brady and New England’s No. 1 ranked offense that averages 35.6 points per game. Brady has a 20-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s on pace to pass for more than 5,500 yards.
The Redskins are a ground-and-pound team. They did stage a remarkable comeback in their last game coming from 24 points down to win. But that was at home against hapless Tampa Bay.
Washington hasn’t broken the 21-point barrier in four of its games this season. The Redskins are way out of their element here even more than this lopsided spread would indicate.