NHL Playoffs: Game-to-Game Betting Analysis



The NHL playoffs are upon us and to help you with your game-to-game betting, I’ve compiled a list of betting data from the regular season. To make sure all trends are at least somewhat relevant, I only used numbers from games after the trade deadline in an attempt to paint an accurate picture of each team as they head into their respective postseason matchups.

If you took in any of my NHL content during the regular season, you know I gave weekly updates on live betting, the three-way moneyline, and of course, the Puckline. I’ve broken this article down by those three categories and given a brief analysis of each which teams I think you should be targeting as well which ones I think could be worth a fade.

For the traditional betting numbers for the entire season (Straight up, OVER/UNDER, ATS) of all the playoff teams, scroll all the way to the bottom of this article.

For NHL futures odds click the respective link to find the article you’re looking for: Stanley Cup Futures, Eastern and Western Conference Futures, Conn Smythe Futures, NHL Series Prices.

Live Betting

The Blue Jackets and Penguins meet in the first round of Lord Stanley’s most sacred competition and they have something in common – neither one can hold a lead when they score first. Columbus is 7-5 in that situation since the trade deadline and Pittsburgh is 7-6. My suggestion here is to think about betting against whichever team scores the first goal of the game if they’re being offered at a good price as neither one has proved it’s capable of holding a lead.

When Leading
Team After Scoring First After 1st Period After 2nd Period
Ducks 10-2 5-3 11-1
Bruins 9-3 6-1 8-0
Flames 9-3 9-1 9-0
Blackhawks 9-4 6-2 6-2
Blue Jackets 7-5 4-1 8-1
Oilers 10-3 8-1 9-1
Wild 7-3 5-0 6-1
Canadiens 8-1 6-0 6-0
Rangers 5-5 3-1 5-2
Predators 6-5 3-3 7-3
Senators 6-3 4-1 8-1
Penguins 7-6 6-1 11-1
Sharks 6-3 4-1 8-1
Blues 13-2 7-2 11-0
Maple Leafs 6-3 7-2 9-1
Capitals 11-3 6-1 9-0
When Losing
Team After Not Scoring First After 1st Period After 2nd Period
Ducks 4-3 2-2 0-1
Bruins 2-5 1-3 1-4
Flames 2-4 1-1 0-7
Blackhawks 2-5 2-4 2-6
Blue Jackets 4-5 2-5 0-6
Oilers 3-2 2-2 2-3
Wild 1-10 1-6 0-9
Canadiens 4-5 3-5 3-6
Rangers 3-6 0-3 0-6
Predators 3-5 1-4 1-5
Devils 1-13 0-8 0-12
Senators 5-7 2-4 2-5
Penguins 5-3 2-2 1-5
Sharks 3-8 1-6 0-10
Blues 2-3 3-3 1-3
Maple Leafs 6-5 1-3 0-6
Capitals 2-4 0-2 0-5

Three-way Moneyline

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but according to this chart, the St. Louis Blues have been the best team in the NHL since the trade deadline. They’ve gone 14-3 in regulation and needed overtime to settle their contests just three times since parting ways with Kevin Shattenkirk.

I like the Blues a lot in these playoffs and think they’ll offer value in most spots until the public realizes how good they actually are. 

Team’s Records in regulation
Team Regulation Record Times Gone to Overtime Goal Differential Per Game
Ducks 12-2 5 1.16
Blues 14-3 3 1.15
Oilers 12-4 2 1.06
Maple Leafs 11-6 3 0.2
Penguins 10-6 5 0.29
Capitals 10-6 4 0.4
Canadiens 8-5 5 0.67
Blackhawks 8-5 7 0.15
Bruins 11-7 1 0.63
Senators 8-6 7 -0.05
Blue Jackets 10-8 3 0.05
Flames 8-7 3 0.67
Rangers 7-7 5 -0.16
Predators 7-7 5 0.26
Wild 8-11 2 -0.19
Sharks 8-11 1 -0.35

Puckline

Although they were a little fortunate to draw the Canadiens in the playoffs instead of one of the juggernauts in the Metropolitan, the Rangers will be a great fade on the puckline from here on. They were terrible at home down the stretch and they even went on a horrendous eight-game losing streak at Madison Square Garden.

My suggestion here would be to back their first-round opponents, the Canadiens, on the moneyline when they’re playing in New York. The Blueshirts hemorrhaged money as favorites after the trade deadline, going just 1-9 ATS and they were actually swept by the Canadiens in their regular season series.

Puckline Records
Team Record Profit Record as Fav Record as Dog
Flames 9-9 (50.0%) 369.39 6-4 3-5
Predators 12-7 (63.2%) 780.53 6-5 6-2
Blues 12-8 (60.0%) 704.29 8-7 4-1
Penguins 11-10 (52.4%) 466.68 8-8 3-2
Oilers 10-8 (55.6%) 364.76 7-7 3-1
Senators 13-8 (61.9%) 186.77 3-3 10-5
Ducks 12-7 (63.2%) 706.56 6-7 6-0
Sharks 10-10 (50.0%) 34.35 6-7 4-3
Bruins 8-11 (42.1%) -2.63 7-10 1-1
Canadiens 8-10 (44.4%) 34.96 5-8 3-2
Capitals 8-12 (40.0%) -117.59 7-12 1-0
Blue Jackets 9-12 (42.9%) -218.52 5-9 4-3
Maple Leafs 10-10 (50.0%) -87.04 4-8 6-2
Wild 8-13 (38.1%) -387.85 5-10 3-3
Blackhawks 10-10 (50.0%) -43.26 4-9 6-1
Rangers 7-12 (36.8%) -719.85 1-9 6-3
OVERALL Traditional Betting Numbers
Team SU Record Profit O/U ATS
Ducks 46-36 $273 28-36-18 43-39
Blues 46-36 $391 34-35-13 34-48
Oilers 47-35 $501 32-42-8 44-38
Maple Leafs 40-42 $-613 37-43-2 45-37
Penguins 50-33 $101 47-30-5 38-44
Capitals 55-27 $786 36-31-15 37-45
Canadiens 47-35 $303 29-38-15 44-38
Blackhawks 50-32 $882 37-32-13 41-41
Bruins 44-38 $-496 37-37-8 39-43
Senators 44-38 $1098 32-47-3 46-36
Blue Jackets 50-32 $1141 32-44-6 41-41
Flames 45-37 $771 34-37-11 43-39
Rangers 48-34 $844 40-36-6 38-44
Predators 41-41 $-677 41-35-6 40-42
Wild 49-33 $527 42-31-9 44-38
Sharks 46-36 $-309 22-37-23 34-48



Source link

Leave a Comment