Oklahoma vs. Oregon: Elite Eight betting preview

 

No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-1, 151)

Game to be played at Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

Oregon defeated Oklahoma on its way to winning the first NCAA Tournament title in 1939, and the top-seeded Ducks will need to go through the No. 2 Sooners again Saturday at Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. if they hope to return to the Final Four for the first time in 77 years. Oregon will need to find someone to guard Buddy Hield, the two-time Big 12 player of the year who comes in averaging 25.1 points, while Oklahoma will face a similar challenge against Oregon leading scorer Dillon Brooks, who has combined for 47 points in the last two West Region games.

These teams have two common opponents this season in Baylor and Washington State, but the results shed little light on which team might have the edge in this game. Oklahoma beat Baylor by 10 points and two points in conference play, the Ducks knocked off the Bears by seven points in the second game of the season and each blew out Washington State in their only meetings. Both teams faced their biggest challenges of this tournament in the second round, as Oregon needed to rally from seven points down in the final five minutes against No. 8 Saint Joseph’s before winning 69-64, the same day Oklahoma held off No. 10 VCU 85-81. The Sooners came back to hammer No. 3 Texas A&M in the Round of 16, a couple hours before the Ducks also posted a 14-point victory against No. 4 Duke.  

TV:  6:09 p.m. ET, CBS

LINE HISTORY: The first Elite Eight matchup of the Tournament opened at a Pick and the early action was on Oklahoma, moving the line to Sooners -1. Since then however, action has come back on Oregon, moving back to a Pick then to Ducks -1. Check out the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY:
“Oregon is still a phony No. 1 seed, and they’ve had an easy path to the Elite 8. They are taking a big step-up in class here against Oklahoma and the Sooners have the offense to match the Ducks. That wasn’t the case in Oregon’s other three games so far.” – Covers Expert Steve Merril.

MATCHUP CHART:

ABOUT OREGON (28-6, 13-20 ATS, 15-18 O/U): Both teams feature exceptional supporting casts to go with their leading scorers, but Oregon might have a little more skill in that area. Elgin Cook is a 6-foot-6 forward like Brooks, but prefers to play more on the inside, where he’s averaging 15 points and 8.7 rebounds in the tournament. Tyler Dorsey had a strong finish to the regular season, but the freshman guard has struggled with his offensive efficiency during the tournament, and the Ducks feature two elite shot blockers in Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell, who might end up being the difference in this outcome.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (28-7, 21-13 ATS, 15-19 O/U):
The Ducks won’t come close to matching the Sooners when it comes to chemistry among its starting five, as Hield, Jordan Woodard, Ryan Spangler and Isaiah Cousins have started the last 102 games together. Woodard is having the second-best tournament showing on the team behind Hield, averaging 18 points through the first three games while shooting 9-for-16 from 3-point range. Cousins is the player who needs to pick up his production, as the third starting guard for the Sooners was held to a season-low two points against Texas A&M after shooting 1-for-8 from the floor, though he did contribute eight assists.

TWEET BEAT:

TRENDS:

* Oklahoma covered its last game, but is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games.
* Oregon is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
* Under is 11-2 in Oklahoma’s last 13 games overall.
* Under is 7-3 in Oregon’s last 10 games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: The public is fairly split for the West Region final, with 54 percent of the wagers on the No. 1 seed Ducks. As for the total, 66 percent of wagers think the result will go Over.

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