Oregon vs North Carolina: What Final Four Bettors Need To Know

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I’ll take a bettor’s look at the two Final Four matchups with betting teams and info for each matchup. Up first is Oregon-North Carolina. 

ODDS: UNC -5 vs Oregon, O/U 151.5 

North Carolina 

ATS: 19-16-2
OVER/UNDER: 15-22 

What bettors must know:

This is probably the most talented team in the Final Four, which is why they’ve been the favorite to win it all for some time. The Heels rank No. 1 in the country in rebounding margin thanks to an incredible frontcourt that includes Justin Jackson and Isaiah Hicks. They can also shoot from anywhere inside the arc, which is a big reason why they are the most efficient offense left. A huge concern is the health of starting point guard Joel Berry, who is nursing two sprained ankles this week. He’s the heart of this offense. 

UNC betting tip:

North Carolina has had a nasty habit of late second-half lapses this postseason where they’ve trailed in three of their last five games in the second half. It’s worth considering waiting to take them in-game. 

Key betting trend:

The ACC is 3-14 ATS in the NCAA tournament so far. 

Futures story:

UNC opened at 15-1 at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas and was the 6-1 favorite coming into the tournament. The Heels are now +140 at Bovada ahead of the Final Four. 

Most exciting betting game in March:

The last one vs Kentucky, which was maybe the most exciting betting finish of the tournament. Most bettors got the line at UNC -2.5. A late Kentucky 3-pointer tied the game and UNC won it for moneyline bettors – but failed to cover – with 0.3 seconds left. 

NCAA tournament betting record since 1996: 

SU: 32-8
ATS: 23-16-1
OU: 23-16-1

Oregon 

ATS: 22-14-1
O/U: 18-19

What bettors must know:

Oregon brings a balanced squad to the Final Four. The team ranks in the top 25 in the nation in field goal offense and field goal defense and in the top 15 in both 3-point offense and 3-point defense. The loss of Chris Boucher six games ago looked like a death blow to this team but Tyler Dorsey has stepped up, at least on offense. Dorsey averaged 13 points at the time of the injury and has scored at least 20 points in every game without Boucher – not to mention he leads the NCAA tournament in scoring.

Key betting trend:

Oregon is 17-7-1 ATS in its last 25 games. 

Futures story: 

Oregon was 20-1 open and moved to 30-1 pre-tourney following a loss in the Pac-12 championship game without Boucher. The Ducks are +550 heading into the Final Four.  

Oregon betting tip:

If you like Oregon to win it all, this is a spot where rolling them over for both games isn’t going to be as profitable as taking them at +550 on futures now. The Ducks are +175 against UNC so on a $100 wager, you’d come away with $275 total for the national semifinals. If they are 5-point dogs against Gonzaga in the final, they’ll be +170 on the moneyline again. If you risked that $275 at +170, that works out to a profit of $481.25 versus a profit of $550 if you took them now. You’re also left with better hedging options if you can get past UNC and took the futures play.   

NCAA tournament record since 1996: 

SU: 14-6
ATS: 12-7-1
OU: 9-11

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