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There are four Over/Under numbers of 50 points or more on the board Sunday: Cincinnati-New Orleans (50.5), Denver-St. Louis (50.5), Philadelphia-Green Bay (54.5) and New England-Indianapolis (57.5). The latter two games have totals that rank among the highest Over/Unders of the past 10 seasons.
The 54.5-point number for Eagles-Packers is tied for the 23rd-highest total since 2005, while the 57.5-point total for Patriots-Colts sits tied for the third-highest Over/Under in an NFL game in the past 10 seasons.
Since 2005, there have been 66 games with totals of 53 points or more and oddsmakers have done a good job balancing the results on those contests, with a dead-even 33-33 Over/Under count. However, when a game dictates a larger number, it’s for a reason.
The five NFL games with totals of 57 points or more in that span are a profitable 4-1 O/U heading into Week 11. Last season featured two of those monstrous numbers: Philadelphia-Denver (57.5) in Week 4 (Broncos 52, Eagles 20) and Washington-Denver (58.5) in Week 8 (Broncos 45, Redskins 21).
As a testament to the rapid increase in scoring, 28 of the 66 games (42 percent) with totals of 53 points or more since 2005 have been played in the past two years (15-13 O/U), with the 2014 regular season already boasting six games with 53-plus-point numbers – those games going a collective 5-1 O/U.
The 2013 regular season featured 19 games with an Over/Under of 53 points or greater, those potential shootouts finishing 10-9 O/U. And, to prove that defense does indeed win championships, the three playoff games with totals of 53-plus all played Under those lofty numbers. The average score was just over 43 points.
Note: The largest NFL total since 2005 was a 59.5-point number when the Detroit Lions played the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Wildcard Round of the 2011-12 NFL season. The Saints won 45-28, topping the total by 13.5 points.