Pac-12 Tournament Final betting preview: Arizona vs. Oregon

Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks (-2, 138)

Game to be played T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada

Oregon and Arizona will play for the Pac-12 tournament title for the second time in three years Saturday in Las Vegas, and a victory by the top-seeded Ducks would earn a fifth conference tournament championship, matching the second-seeded Wildcats for the most in the event’s 19-year history. Oregon beat visiting Arizona by 27 points in their only meeting this season, which represents the second-worst loss in eight seasons under coach Sean Miller.

Oregon small forward Dillon Brooks was voted the Pac-12 Player of the Year, but sophomore guard Tyler Dorsey is currently the hottest shooter among the No. 5-ranked Ducks. Dorsey scored 23 points and made all six 3-pointers in the first meeting against Arizona this season, and scored 23 again Friday in the semifinals, shooting 5-for-6 from 3-point range in the 73-65 victory against fifth-seeded California. Dorsey helped cover for Brooks, who missed 12 1/2 minutes of the second half after picking up his fourth foul with 18:03 remaining and Oregon clinging to a five-point lead. No. 7-ranked Arizona played one of its strongest games of the season in its semifinal win against third-seeded UCLA, and the Wildcats are a different team than they were in the Feb. 4 loss to the Ducks, namely sophomore shooting guard Allonzo Trier is back in the starting lineup and appears in midseason form after missing the first 19 games because of a suspension.

TV: 11 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: Oregon opened as 2-point chalk in the Pac-12 Championship while the total hit the board at 138. Check out the complete line history here.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS:
Arizona (-17.6) – Oregon(-18) + neutral site (0) = Oregon -0.4

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT OREGON (29-4): Oregon has been leaning heavily on 6-9 junior forward Jordan Bell, playing him at least 30 minutes in four of the last five games, and he figures to play close to 40 minutes against Arizona if he can stay out of foul trouble. Bell matched his season high with 15 rebounds against California while also contributing six points and five blocked shots, and he should do a better job defending Arizona freshman forward Lauri Markkanen than UCLA did, giving up 29 points to the 7-footer. Another player who should be a factor is guard Dylan Ennis, who made all nine of his free throws against the Golden Bears, and his ability to penetrate and get certain Wildcats in foul trouble could be one of the keys to this game.

ABOUT ARIZONA (29-4): Trier scored 20 points in the semifinal win against UCLA and his matchup with Brooks will be one to watch. Trier hasn’t defeated the Ducks in two seasons at Arizona, and in the conference tournament semifinals last season against the Ducks fouled out with 2:37 left in regulation and the Wildcats lost in overtime. Arizona will need more than Trier and Markkanen to dethrone Oregon and 6-5 freshman guard Rawle Alkins might be the answer if he can play as he did the last month against the Ducks, when he finished with 16 points, six rebounds, four assists and four steals.

MATCHUP CHART:



TRENDS:

* Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 7-1 in Oregon’s last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 5-2-1 in Arizona’s last eight neutral site games.

Click here for a complete list of hot and cold trends.

COVERS CONSENSUS: The early consensus has 65 percent of bettors laying the points with Oregon, while a big 73 percent of wager are on the Over. Click here for complete consensus data.




Source link

Leave a Comment