After suffering their first SU and ATS loss since Tom Brady’s return, the lowly San Francisco 49ers will be served up on a silver platter for the Patriots who are on a run that’s seen them go 16-3 SU after a loss. Oddsmakers are well aware that New England will have vengeance on their minds as they opened them as the biggest favorite of the week at 14 points, which also makes them the biggest favorite of the season if that spread remains intact.
- The 49ers are 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
- LeGarrette Blount has scored at least one rushing TD in his last five games.
- The 49ers are allowing an NFL-worst 185.6 rushing yards per game at home.
The Patriots have been road favorites three times already this season and have absolutely cleaned up in that spot, going 3-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average 15.6 points. But, is 14 points too much to cover for a road team traveling cross-country? No. The 49ers already have five losses of more than 14 points this season, with two of those losses coming at home. In their seven losses this season, they’ve lost by an average of 16.3 points. This team is awful.
Looking a little bit closer at the significance of that big spread, over the past five seasons, there’s only been TWO spreads of 14 or more points favoring the road team. Big spreads like this, no matter what side is favored, tend to favor the underdog, as favorites are 39-47-3 since 2006 in games with a spread of 14 points or more.
As of Tuesday, the line was bumped down to 13 points, but per usual, more movement is expected.
Opening Odds & Computer Pick
Betting fans looking to back the visiting New England Patriots in this one found them as -14-point favorites earlier in the week, while the total was settling in the neighborhood of 51.5 at shops such as Bovada.
Prediction-scoring formulas run on this game pick a potential 35-17 result in favor of the Patriots. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
The San Francisco 49ers currently sport a record of 1-8, and have posted a corresponding betting slate of 2-7 ATS. The New England Patriots are 7-2 and 7-2 ATS. Betting totals have seen the San Francisco 49ers post a 6-3 over under record this season, while the New England Patriots have gone 4-4-1 against the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and San Francisco vs New England injuries news.
It’s a betting matchup between the No. 31-rated San Francisco 49ers and the No. 5-ranked New England Patriots, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at Odds – Shark
Offensively, the game matches up the San Francisco 49ers No. 22-ranked offense (20.78 PPG) against a New England Patriots defense that ranks No. 6 at 18.11 PPG. The 49ers passing attack has averaged 191.22 yards per game, less than the Patriots give up through the air (260.67 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the New England Patriots own the league’s No. 7-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 95 yards per game when on the road. San Francisco, on the other hand, rates No. 7 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
LeGarrette Blount sliced and diced the Seattle defense for 3 touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough as the New England lost their last game, falling to the Seahawks 31-24 at Gillette Stadium.
In their last game, the 49ers were Week 10 losers coming out on the wrong end of 23-20 score against Arizona.
- New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
- New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
- New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
- New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
- San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
- San Francisco is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco’s last 5 games
- San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next Betting Matchups
New England at New York, Sunday, November 27th
San Francisco at Miami, Sunday, November 27th