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It isn’t always the league’s best teams who hit their numbers easily, sometimes it’s just a team being unexpectedly better than the books anticipated. There are several teams who will hit the over yet still miss the playoffs. The Arizona Coyotes, for example, are number three on our list that is sorted by “Points Per Game Required To Hit OVER”. The “desert dogs” are not going to qualify for the postseason, as they currently sit a whopping 11 points back of the final playoff spot, but they only need two points to cash for over bettors.
There are other teams who are just so good that the books couldn’t realistically set the number high enough. The Washington Capitals, with 103 points, have already surpassed their preseason point total that was set at 99.5 and they are showing no signs of slowing down. With 17 games remaining they should easily blow past 120 points after 84 games.
The opposite analysis applies with the teams at the bottom of our list. Some teams have underachieved all season, some teams have had unfortunate bad luck, and some teams were massively overvalued by the books before the puck was dropped in October. The Tampa Bay Lightning are a perfect example of a team who has played worse than anyone expected all season long, the Montreal Canadiens didn’t have the roster depth to recover from missing Carey Price for most of the season, and the Columbus Blue Jackets and Calgary Flames were given way too much credit for their offseason moves and 2014-15 success.
Here is the full list (note: all stats are based on standings as of March 11, 2016):
Preseason point totals provided by Westgate LV Superbook.
Green – Very good chance
White – Will need a hot streak
Orange – No chance