There are many who will tell you to blindly bet the under in the early days and weeks of the MLB season. With weather and rust taking an affect on batters, it seems only logical that runs would be scarce.
Even Detroit Tigers manager Brad Ausmus seems to agree, telling the media “I don’t think that the cold weather helps anyone. I’d bet that scoring is down in April across the board.”
Ausmus is correct.
Runs have been on a steady decline in the cruelest month with an average of 9.86 runs crossing the plate per game in 2006 compared to just 8.3 this season. Only twice in the past decade has there been more runs scored scored in April than the previous year (2009, 2013).
The average runs per game of the past three seasons are three of the four lowest in the past decade, but they carry a combined over/under record of 1026-908-98. That’s a steady 53 percent over rate, with this season topping the total at a 54 percent clip.
It seems that players still haven’t found their swings since kicking up their feet in the warm weather of Spring Training, but books are aware of this and will likely be posting lower totals in the early months of the MLB calender.