SN: NFL Week 4 Betting Trends Analysis

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are home for the first time since opening week hosting Carolina.

But that’s not necessarily good news for the Bucs – and it’s not because the Panthers are unbeaten. The Buccaneers are 15-36-1 (29 percent) against the spread (ATS) during their last 52 home games.

Tampa Bay lost all eight of its matchups at Raymond James Stadium last season covering only twice. The Buccaneers were smashed by Tennessee opening week, 42-14.

Many of those home defeats occurred under the watch of Raheem Morris and Greg Schiano. But the sad home tradition is continuing under Lovie Smith as the Bucs are 0-9 at home since he took over as head coach.

Trends for Texans and Broncos for Week 4

Ever since the Houston Texans entered the NFL in 2002 they’ve played their home games on grass. That changed this past Sunday when AstroTurf was installed at NRG Stadium.

The Texans were lucky to cover as six-point home favorites against the Buccaneers, winning 19-9. Tampa Bay kicker Kyle Brindza missed three field goals and an extra point.

Houston entered that game 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing on artificial turf.

The Denver Broncos are hosting Minnesota. The total is 42 1/2 in that game, which is the lowest Broncos home over/under since 2012. The Broncos have gone over the total in 69 percent of their last 49 home contests.

That over trend is impressive, but outdated. The Broncos have gone under in two of their three games this season. They have a dominant defense, run the ball more than before and Peyton Manning has lost much of his fastball. Denver ranks 30th in total yards averaging 290.7 per game.

Can Colts continue dominant division record?

So sometimes trends can become obsolete very quickly. Perhaps that will be the case when Indianapolis hosts Jacksonville on Sunday and then plays at Houston in Week 5.

The Colts are 13-0 and 11-1-1 ATS against their fellow AFC South Division opponents since 2013. However, the 1-2 Colts didn’t cover this past Sunday against Tennessee having to stop a late two-point conversion in order to prevent the game from going into overtime.

The Colts have gone to as high as 10-point favorites versus the Jaguars.

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