New England Patriots vs. Atlanta Falcons – Open: +3 (-110); Move: +3 (+100); Move: +3 (-110)
New England (16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS) saw some early action last week, but not enough to move off its status as a 3-point favorite for Sunday’s big game. Rather, William Hill adjusted the Patriots’ price off the standard flat rate of -110 to -120, where it remained until Friday before going back to -110.
“We haven’t moved in four days,” Bogdanovich said of his more than 100 shops around the state. “It’s one of those games where we’re just sitting there taking bets. We’re just a little high on New England, but it’s not much to talk about. To me, it seems quiet. That’s what happens when you have the same number.”
Bookmaker.eu has also been at New England -3 throughout, but the price bounced around a bit more and even ran counter to the fluctuations at William Hill. At their peak, the Pats bumped up a tick to -115, but were sitting at -105 on Tuesday, while Atlanta was at +3 (-115).
“As of this morning, we have about 55 percent of the handle on the Patriots, so we aren’t eager to move the line anywhere,” Cooley said. “If we do end up moving, it will likely be the day of the game or the 48 hours prior, because that’s when most of the action comes in. If we want action on one side, then we’ll move the other side to attract it. It will all depend on what position the house wants to be in.”
William Hill opened the total at 58.5, went to 59 within about 30 minutes and has stuck on that number for more than a week, though there are looming concerns.
“We’re high to the total on straight bets, but not too much,” he said. “But every parlay is to the over. We need the under big because of that.”
Bookmaker.eu was also running high on the over, and the margin of over cash could grow larger as the game draws closer to kickoff.
“The total has more than 70 percent of the money on the over,” Cooley said. “We’re certainly expecting some sharp money to offset that, but there will be plenty more public money on the over as well.”
Bogdanovich expects his shops to see plenty of public money this weekend, too, when the throngs descend on Vegas for the big game. But he doesn’t necessarily see big changes in any of the lines.
“I think we’ll get to Patriots -3 (-120), and that’s it,” he said. “I think the total will stay at 59, and the moneyline will stay the same or tick down a nickel – either -150 or -145.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.