With two winning weeks overall under our belt, but two losing weeks with our Westgate SuperContest picks, it’s time to finally pick the correct picks in Week 3.
Sound confusing? It’s not. There are 16 games each week that the computer projects and we pick five of those games to go in the prestigious Las Vegas handicapping contest.
With two 2-3 weeks in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look ahead to a 5-0 ATS sweep to get back in contention for the $750,000 grand prize.
So it’s time to fade a few bad favorites and to agree with the computer that the Eagles are primed for a breakout week and can cover a TD spread.
Rams +1.5 at home to Dallas – score 23-21 Rams
Dallas won two straight just twice last year and just twice in 2012, so they don’t exactly string victories together well. They are also just 0-5-1 ATS in six road games against NFC West foes dating to 2008 and 2-7-1 ATS in 10 road games favored by a field goal or less since 2009.
So while the Rams are hardly a solid pick, they are a home dog and they face a bad road favorite. The Cowboys are also the public’s favorite bet as of Friday (according to our consensus data at 68%) and we all know that fading the public is usually a good way to make money.
Eagles -6.5 at home to Washington – score 36-17 Eagles
If the computer is wrong by 12 points, the Eagles can still cover the spread here. After two weeks where they played for only 30 minutes, they might only need 30 to blow out the Redskins.
Cardinals +3 at home to San Francisco – score 29-28 Cardinals
True the 49ers almost always win and cover as road favorites, but their collapse against the Bears last week raised some eyebrows. And not all the trends are positive ones for the Niners here.
They are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. NFC West foes and the Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as home underdogs.
Bengals -6.5 at home to Tennessee – score 32-21 Bengals
We got burned betting against the Titans in Week 1, but the Bengals are the superior team and almost always cover at home (10-1 ATS last 11). They have covered eight straight as home chalk, but the little dog voice in our heads keeps whispering that the Titans have won four of six outright when catching points on the road.
Broncos +5 at Seattle – score 36-34 Seahawks
Revenge is overrated and winning here would hardly erase the humiliation of Denver’s Super Bowl to the Seahawks. But this is the first time in 33 games the Broncos have been underdogs and Seattle showed themselves to be human against a lesser QB than Peyton Manning in losing to the Chargers.
True, the Seahawks almost always win at home and almost always cover. But laying five points heading into a bye week seems a bit much and the computer says it will be closer.
Check out the Super Contest picks for the other Team VSB members by Saturday and good luck to Todd Fuhrman, who is perfect after two weeks.