We questioned the merits of sticking with the computer’s chalk-heavy opinion in Week 5 and we debated it again for Week 6.
The Odds – VSB
computer missed a 5-0 ATS sweep by a single point in Week 5 of the Westgate Super Contest.
We have the Philadelphia Eagles to blame for that as the Westgate mid-week line was -7 and the Eagles beat the Rams 34-28. Of course, the spread closed in the -4 range at most sportsbooks, but that was no consolation for the contest picks.
The computer also picked the Bucs at +10 (OT loser to New Orleans), Steelers, Chargers and Colts as the computer’s love affair with chalk finally paid off. Faves went 11-3-1 ATS on the week after getting hammered by the dogs in earlier weeks.
Fast-forward to Week 6 and we chose five computer picks that focus on faves again. Call it the Odds – VSB
Square Computer, but let’s not laugh until Monday.
Denver -8.5 at Jets – computer says: 27-19 Broncos
Note that the spread has climbed to 11 points at Bodog and other shops, which would not be a play based on the computer’s projection. But at -8.5 set by Westgate Superbook on Wednesday, this is a play.
The Jets have never been a double-digit home dog in the 34 years of the VSB.com NFL Database, but they get the points here. We often pick bad teams from a week ago to rebound the following week, but the Jets can play much better and still get smoked.
Chargers -7 at Raiders – computer says: 33-9 Chargers
The computer says this is the biggest rout of the week and it’s hard to imagine the Raiders, with an interim coach and off a bye week, suddenly turning the corner to beat the hot Chargers. Giving any home team seven points is hazardous to your bankroll but the computer says our money is safe.
Bengals -7 vs Carolina – computer says: 28-19 Bengals
We have been watching the ‘reversal of fortune’ theory lately, betting on teams that looked terrible a week ago and fading teams that looked great. Cincy is 11-0 ATS at home and looked terrible at New England, but they are the superior team and can win bigger than the computer says.
Packers -3.5 at Miami – computer says: 26-22 Packers
The Dolphins come off a bye and overachieved in Week 4, clobbering the Raiders. So they fit in the ‘fade’ category here. The Packers have been awesome two weeks in a row, so they potentially also deserve the fade treatment, but a hot Aaron Rodgers laying just a field goal is too tempting and the computer says they eke out a cover.
49ers -3.5 at Rams – computer says: 25-18 Niners
The Rams will feel false hope here against a superior 49ers team that is still trying to find its way, but this is another case of a small road chalk enjoying a big edge on the home dog. The Niners are also 8-1 ATS in nine recent MNF games and 25-8-1 ATS in this role dating back two decades.
The 49ers get it done and the Rams don’t sneak a back-door cover this week.