The Odds – VSB
NFL computer was 9-6 ATS in Week 6, the sixth straight week it has produced a winning record overall.
But for the fifth time in six weeks, we chose losing picks to enter in the Westgate Super Contest, lurching to a 2-3 record. Grrrrrr.
This week, the computer says ‘yes’ to the Browns as the biggest road favorites in their history and ‘no’ to Denver as Peyton Manning inches closer to the magic 509 career TD mark of Brett Favre. It also agrees with the experts at Odds – VSB
that you should fade two really bad favorites this week.
Here goes nothing on our latest attempt to make up ground in the Super Contest standings.
Seattle -6.5 at St. Louis – computer says 30-14 Seahawks
If you watched the Rams after the first quarter last Monday against the 49ers, you are aware that they are not a good team.
Laying more than a TD on the road is often point-spread foolishness but the Seahawks are the superior team by a wide margin and they almost always rebound from losses with ATS covers. The past 12 times in this situation, they covered the spread nine times in their next game.
They catch the QB-less Rams on short rest which only adds insult to injury here. (Best Seahawks line probably at BetDSI).
Cleveland -5.5 at Jacksonville – computer says 22-11 Browns
Trust the Browns as road favorites? Well, they have never been a road favorite of more than 3.5 points in their history (post-1999 franchise history) and they have only ever been in this situation nine times in 15 seasons.
But they are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS as road chalk and the Jaguars are truly terrible.
San Francisco +6.5 at Denver – computer says 30-26 Broncos (expect the best 49ers line to be at Bodog)
The 49ers look to be hitting their stride, even with a patch-work defense. And Peyton Manning has thrown only five career TDs in four games vs the 49ers with one of his lowest QB ratings.
The Niners are 6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS since 2011 as road underdogs and the last time they got 6 points was the 2012 opener when they defeated the Packers outright.
Peyton is closing in on Favre’s career TD mark but he won’t make much headway here.
Tennessee +5.5 at Washington – computer says 17-15 Titans
When the computer fades a bad favorite, we like to make that one of our Westgate picks. Washington qualifies as bad chalk and the computer says they will lose outright in a low-scoring game.
The Titans are riding a 5-game ATS losing skid but it ends here.
Minnesota +5.5 at Buffalo – computer says 20-16 Bills (dogs, check out the Bodog lines for the best dog value)
Let’s fade another bad favorite with Pick #5. The Bills have looked like the Bills again lately and cannot be trusted with nearly a TD on the spread here. The Vikes can win this outright, the points are a bonus.