The Odds – VSB
computer picked 11 winners out of 15 games in Week 7, but stumbled to a 7-8 ATS mark overall, its first losing week of the season.
Predictably, the Westgate SuperContest picks went just 2-3, leaving the computer far behind the leaders. Alcatraz Holdings, otherwise known as Dustin Rampi, remains the overall leader at 28-7 despite a 2-3 week. (Check out exclusive video interview with the leader Friday here at Odds – VSB
In Week 8, the computer aims for its first 5-0 ATS sweep of the year and it will lean on underdogs to get the job done. See all the NFL picks for Week 8 here.
Chargers +9 at Denver – computer says 31-30 San Diego (best SD line at Bodog) | Preview
The Broncos cruised to an emotional win Sunday where Peyton Manning set the career TD passing mark. On a short week, they are in tough here facing a big number against a divisional foe, one that is due for a bounce-back after a poor outing.
The Chargers are 12-2-1 ATS since 2002 when getting seven points or more. It happened three times last season, all three were against these same Broncos and they were 2-1 ATS in those games. The Chargers have also covered six in a row as road dogs and the computer is boldly calling an outright win.
Eagles +3 at Arizona – computer says 33-30 Philadelphia | Matchup
Another outright upset pick where the Eagles try to keep pace with the Cowboys in the NFC East and the Cardinals are not as good as their record suggests.
Philly has won 12 of 14 games after a bye since 2001 and they have been tough as road dogs (10-4 ATS).
Bills +3 at Jets – computer says 21-15 Buffalo | Matchup
A third straight dog winner as we fade a bad favorite in the New York Jets, losers of six straight. Buffalo looks for its third road win of the season and there are plenty of trends that suggest the Bills won’t win here (1-13 SU past 14 seasons before a bye week, 3-15 SU in divisional road games since 2008, 3-9 SU past 12 games at Jets).
But the computer has shown a knack for identifying phony chalk and picking against it.
Seahawks -5 at Carolina – computer says 32-19 Seattle | Matchup
Seattle has gone from indomitable to unpredictable in just two weeks, losing two straight games and buzzing with locker-room banter after the Percy Harvin trade.
Still, the computer likes the Seahawks to win easily here and they are 10-3 ATS in recent years when coming off consecutive ATS losses.
They have won and covered three straight against the Panthers and the ground game stats point to a long night for Carolina. Seattle is currently #2 in road rushing (168 ypg), while Carolina ranks #28 in defending the run at home (140 ypg).
Carolina also ranks last in home rushing, while Seattle is #4 in stopping the run on the road. The theory is that Seattle pounds the ball, wears out the Panthers defense and slowly pulls away for the cover.
Washington +9 at Dallas – computer says 28-20 Dallas | Matchup
The Cowboys have won six straight but still haven’t convinced anyone that they are Super Bowl material. They have also stumbled badly on MNF, failing to cover in eight of the past nine games under the MNF lights. They also face a Washington team – whether it’s Colt McCoy or RGIII – that they have struggled to cover against, going 3-12 ATS past 15 meetings.
Washington has been a double-digit underdog just five times since 2007 – three have been against Dallas and they covered the spread each time. This will end up being a double-digit spread and Washington will cover again.