Thanksgiving Day NCAAF betting preview: LSU at Texas A&M

No. 16 Louisiana State Tigers at No. 25 Texas A&M Aggies (+7.5, 47)

Texas A&M and LSU went from SEC contenders to third place in the West Division over the last few weeks and just hope to close out their respective seasons strong. The 22nd-ranked Aggies, who still have a shot at second place in the West, will try to put together back-to-back wins when they host LSU on Thursday in a Thanksgiving battle.

Texas A&M was in fourth place in the first College Football Playoff rankings but dropped its next two games to Mississippi State and Ole Miss to drop to 25th before recovering with a 23-10 victory over non-conference foe UTSA on Saturday. The Aggies are still a possibility for a Sugar Bowl berth, which would go to the second-highest ranked team from the SEC, and would finish in second place in the SEC West with a win on Thursday and an Auburn loss against Alabama. The Tigers, who lost to Auburn earlier in the year, have no shot at second place and could be playing for interim coach Ed Orgeron’s job on Thursday. LSU won three straight after Orgeron took over for Les Miles but since dropped two of three while looking unimpressive on the offensive end.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE HISTORY: LSU opened as 5.5-point road favorites, that spread was bet down early in the week to 5, the line reversed track Tuesday and jumped up to 6.5 and continued to rise to the current number of 7.5. The total hit the board at 45 and rose steadily all week to reach the current number at 47. Check out the complete line history here. 

INJURY REPORT:

LSU – FB B. Mouton (Questionable, undisclosed), RB L. Fournette (Doubtful, ankle), WR T. Dural (Questionable, undisclosed), LB K. Beckwith (Out, knee), WR J. Ferguson (Out, suspension), S R. Jefferson (Out For Season, leg), S C. Thompson (Out For Season, knee), DE I. Washington (Out For Season, knee), DT C. LaCouture (Out For Season, knee).

Texas A&M – QB J. Hubenak (Probable, shoulder), DB P. Willis (Probable, undisclosed), DB A. Watts (Questionable, leg), DB D. Wilson (Questionable, undisclosed), OL J. Eluemunor (Questionable, undisclosed), DB N. Harvey (Questionable, undisclosed), RB T. Williams (Questionable, undisclosed), OL C. Lanfear (Out For Season, knee), DB N. Ellis (Out For Season, leg), QB T. Knight (Out For Season, shoulder), LB J. Dunning (Out Indefinitely, suspension), DB J. Dunning (Out For Season, knee), WR Q. Davis (Out For Season, knee).

WEATHER REPORT: The weather conditions for this Thanksgiving evening game at College Station, Texas are expected to be clear with temperatures in the low-60’s or upper-50’s. There will be no wind that will impact the game.

CHEERLEADER WAR:

ABOUT LSU (6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS, 1-7-1 O/U): Orgeron was expected to spark the Tigers offense but watched his team score one touchdown in five goal-to-go chances on Saturday at home against Florida, including a goal-line stand that clinched the setback. “We shot ourselves in the foot and had a lot of opportunities in the red zone,” Orgeron told reporters. “We didn’t convert any points. Two turnovers were really costly in the football game. Guys fought the whole way, gave us a chance to win the football game.” Star running back Leonard Fournette, who was hobbled by an ankle injury that has plagued him on and off all season, was limited to 40 yards on 12 carries Saturday and will likely miss Thursday’s game.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-3 SU, 4-7 ATS, 3-7-1 O/U): The Aggies’ biggest star – defensive end Myles Garrett – has been hobbled most of the season as well but finally looked fully healthy on Saturday and recorded 4 1/2 sacks in the win. Garrett, who is expected to go high in the first round of the next NFL draft, became the eighth player in SEC history to record 30 or more sacks in his career (32 1/2). Texas A&M, which lost starter Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury in the loss to Mississippi, is still getting used to Jake Hubenak at quarterback, and the junior threw for 248 yards and a touchdown against UTSA.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Aggies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 9-1 in Tigers last 10 games in November.
* Under is 11-2-1 in Aggies last 14 games on grass.
* Tigers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 58 percent of Covers users are taking the home underdog while 52 percent favor the Over in this battle of top 25 teams.  View full Covers Consensus here.


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