Perhaps you’re unaware, but there’s a professional basketball team currently representing the city of Denver that’s been flying under the radar this season, and with good reason — because they suck. Sub-.500 record aside, there’s a few spots this season where the Denver Nuggets have been either especially profitable or unprofitable.
It’s easy for fans to be consumed by the heavyweights of the NBA, but when you weren’t looking, teams like the Nuggets and the gold mine of betting opportunities they offer have gone unnoticed — but that’s why I’m here.
Here’s the blueprint for how to bet on the Denver Nuggets:
Totals are Mile High at home (Hilarious pun, I know):
Denver’s OVER/UNDER record at home so far this season is 18-7-1. The reason is quite simple as the Nuggets have the league’s fourth-best offense at home, averaging 112.9 points, while they have the NBA’s second-worst defense at home, allowing an average of 111.9 points.
Consistently topping the total at home is nothing new for the Nuggets, but oddsmakers don’t appear to be catching on. Last season they went OVER in 63.4% of their home games, so keep pounding the OVER as this trend appears to have a long shelf life.
They have no bark, they have no bite
Since late November, Denver has posted a 6-12-1 ATS record as an underdog, so next time you see the Nuggets at plus points, go the other way. Of those 19 games as an underdog, they won just four of them outright, so if you’re thinking upset, you should reconsider.
Digging a bit deeper, as an underdog of 5 points or more this season, Denver is a brutal 1-13 SU and 4-9-1 ATS. This makes the Nuggets an obvious team to fade when they’re a dog of more than a few buckets.
They stink as Underdogs, but are great as Overdogs
Yes, ‘overdog’ is a term I just made up to describe a season-long phenomenon for the Nuggets, so back off, spell check!
This type of trend is usually more coincidental than anything, but at the rate it’s cashing at, it can’t be ignored. The Nuggets have been an underdog in 30 games this season, and the total has gone OVER in 23 of those games — an amazing rate of 76.6% — making them an incredible OVER bet when tabbed as an underdog.
With all these OVERs hitting, you’d be right to assume that totals in Nuggets games have been increasing over the course of the season. In their first 27 games, they had a total of 220 or more five times. In the 27 games since, they had a total of 220 or more 15 times. Still, they’ve gone 18-8-1 O/U in their last 27 games, which is on par with their 19-8 O/U record in their first 27 games.
To recap – Bet the OVER at home, bet against them as an underdog, the Nuggets are overdogs.